Analysis of Investment Opportunities and Supply-Demand Balance of Moutai During Its Cyclical Downturn Phase

1. Cycle Phase and Price Performance
   
   Users compare Moutai’s current phase with Dong-E-E-Jiao’s cyclical crisis experience, believing that Moutai entered the cyclical downturn phase in December 2021. Stock data shows that Moutai A-shares (600519) reached a peak stock price of approximately 2217 yuan in December 2021, and as of December 2025, it has fallen 27.69% to 1410 yuan, with a 3.52% drop in the past month, currently in a sideways consolidation phase [0][1]. It should be noted that the 3500 yuan mentioned by users may refer to the retail price of Moutai liquor rather than the stock price.

2. Supply-Demand and Financial Fundamentals
   
   Users point out that Moutai is currently in a clear oversupply state; although there is no latest direct supply-demand data, the stock price drop reflects the market’s concern about growth slowdown [0]. Financially, Moutai’s ROE reaches 36.48%, net profit margin is 51.51%, debt risk is low, and fundamentals are still strong [0].

3. Crisis Response and Cyclical Rules
   
   Users believe that the main methods to resolve oversupply are price reduction and shipment cutbacks, which are in line with the industry’s conventional measures to deal with supply-demand imbalance, but no relevant specific information released by Moutai’s official has been found so far. Users also question whether Moutai can break away from economic cycle rules, which needs to be verified in combination with subsequent industry cycle trends and company strategy changes.

1. Valuation and Investment Space
   
   DCF valuation analysis shows that Moutai’s conservative valuation is 1088.73 yuan, base valuation is 1577.40 yuan (+12.6% compared to current price), optimistic valuation is 2565.85 yuan (+83.2%), and weighted average valuation is 1743.99 yuan (+24.5%) [0]. There is certain upside potential in terms of valuation, but attention needs to be paid to the progress of supply-demand repair and changes in market sentiment.

2. Limitations of Comparative Logic
   
   Users compare Moutai with Dong-E-E-Jiao’s cyclical experience; the two have different industry characteristics, and the brand power and consumption scenarios of the liquor industry, especially high-end liquor, are different from those of the Ejiao industry, so the validity of the comparison needs to be carefully evaluated.

• The duration of the oversupply state is uncertain;
• If Moutai does not take effective supply-demand adjustment measures, its stock price may continue to be under pressure;
• The impact of the economic cycle downturn on high-end liquor consumption still needs to be observed.

• Potential repair space at the valuation level;
• Strong fundamentals; if supply-demand relations are repaired, the stock price has a basis for rebound;
• Risk resistance brought by the leading position in the industry.

Moutai is currently in a cyclical downturn phase; its stock price has corrected significantly from the peak, and fundamentals remain strong. Valuation analysis shows there is certain upside potential, but attention needs to be paid to the progress of supply-demand repair and the company’s response strategies. The oversupply and crisis response measures mentioned by users currently lack direct official evidence and need further verification in combination with subsequent developments. Market sentiment is divided; investors should comprehensively consider cycle trends, valuation levels, and fundamental conditions.