BlackRock's Rosenberg Identifies Treasury Curve Opportunities Amid Government Shutdown Data Gaps

This analysis is based on the Bloomberg Surveillance interview with Jeffrey Rosenberg [1], portfolio manager of BlackRock’s systematic multi-strategy fund, published on November 7, 2025. The interview occurred during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which has now exceeded 36 days and created unprecedented data gaps for economic analysis and investment decision-making [2].

Rosenberg’s identification of “sweet spot” opportunities in the middle of the Treasury yield curve reflects sophisticated positioning in a complex rate environment. The Treasury yield curve has shown signs of steepening, with 2-year yields falling by 68 basis points in 2025 while longer-term yields remain elevated [4]. This creates opportunities in the 5-10 year maturity range where investors can capture relatively attractive yields while maintaining some protection against further rate cuts. The systematic approach employed by Rosenberg utilizes quantitative credit modeling, drawing on his background as former Chief Credit Strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch [3].

The government shutdown’s impact is substantial, affecting 100% of appropriations compared to only 10% in the 2018-2019 shutdown [2]. Goldman Sachs projects Q4 GDP growth of just 1%, significantly lower than the 3-4% growth projected for Q3 [2]. Despite these challenges, markets have shown remarkable resilience, with the S&P 500 down only 0.26%, NASDAQ up 0.03%, and Dow Jones up 0.64% over the past 30 trading days [0].

The convergence of monetary policy easing (Fed has cut rates by 1 percentage point since September to 4.25%-4.50% [5]) with fiscal uncertainty creates unique opportunities for systematic strategies. Rosenberg’s middle-curve focus aligns with BlackRock’s broader view favoring short-to-intermediate exposure in falling rate environments [4].

The shutdown creates a permanent degradation in economic data quality that may persist even after resolution [2]. This elevates the importance of systematic, model-driven approaches that can supplement traditional government data sources with alternative indicators.

The disconnect between economic reality (15 billion weekly cost to economy [2]) and market resilience suggests investors may be pricing in a swift resolution or looking beyond short-term disruptions, supported by continued Fed accommodation.

• Data Vacuum Risk:
  Critical economic surveys suspended, potentially affecting investment decisions for months [2]
• Volatility Risk:
  Information constraints may lead to increased market volatility as investors struggle to gauge economic conditions
• Credit Quality Risk:
  Economic slowdown could affect corporate credit quality and default rates, making systematic credit analysis crucial

• Middle-Curve Positioning:
  5-10 year Treasury range offers optimal risk-adjusted returns in current steepening curve environment
• Systematic Strategy Advantage:
  Quantitative approaches gain value during periods of data uncertainty
• Flight to Quality:
  Corporate bond markets may benefit from investors seeking safety in uncertain environment

The analysis reveals that opportunities in the middle curve may be time-sensitive, as the steepening trend and rate environment could evolve rapidly once government data resumes and policy clarity returns.

Rosenberg’s systematic multi-strategy approach focuses on quantitative credit modeling and systematic fixed income investing [3], particularly valuable during data-scarce periods like the current shutdown.

Current Fed funds rate target is 4.25%-4.50%, with 10-year Treasury yields around 4.11% after briefly dipping below 4% in October [5]. Major indices have maintained resilience despite shutdown concerns [0].

The shutdown has created permanent GDP loss estimated at $7-14 billion, with October unemployment rate potentially artificially inflated due to furloughed workers being counted as unemployed [2].

Data gaps require increased reliance on alternative indicators and systematic approaches, with middle-curve positioning offering potential optimal risk-adjusted returns while credit analysis becomes more challenging without government employment and inflation data.