Analysis of YTO Express's Volume Growth and Price Decline Trend in November 2025 and the Impact of Industry Competition

YTO Express (600233) recorded a 13.55% year-on-year growth in business volume to 2.886 billion tickets in November 2025, driving express product revenue up by 11.08% to 6.474 billion yuan, but the per-ticket revenue decreased by 2.17% year-on-year to 2.24 yuan [0]. The profit impact of volume growth and price decline depends on changes in per-ticket costs: the company’s previous financial reports show that it has invested in efficiency improvement through high capital expenditures [0], and the expected growth in business volume will bring scale economy effects. If the per-ticket cost decreases by more than 2.17%, profitability can remain stable or improve. Against the backdrop of intensified industry competition but regulators implementing anti-involution measures, the decline in per-ticket revenue may be limited [1][2].

From the perspective of market share, if the 2025 express delivery industry business volume growth rate is lower than YTO’s 13.55% (referring to the 2024 industry growth rate of about 10%), its market share will increase. Regarding profit quality, the company has low debt risk [0], but its Q3 2025 free cash flow was negative (-912 million yuan) mainly due to high capital expenditures [0], so the profit quality is at a moderate level. The efficiency improvement effect of long-term investments needs continuous attention.

1. Volume Growth-Driven Growth Model
   : Under the competitive landscape of the express delivery industry, price elasticity has weakened, and business volume growth has become the core driver. YTO’s scale expansion (13.55% growth rate) helps consolidate cost advantages and alleviate the pressure from declining per-ticket revenue.
2. Balance Between Regulation and Competition
   : Regulatory anti-involution measures limit the sharp decline in per-ticket revenue [1][2], enabling the company to achieve balanced growth in revenue and profits through scale economies.
3. Long-Term Value of Capital Expenditures
   : The company improves operational efficiency through high capital expenditures, which affects free cash flow in the short term but will reduce per-ticket costs and enhance profit quality in the long run.

• Industry competition still exists; per-ticket revenue may decline further. If the cost reduction rate lags behind, profit margins will be squeezed.
• Short-term capital expenditures lead to negative free cash flow; liquidity pressure needs attention.

• High business volume growth brings scale advantages, further reducing per-ticket costs.
• Regulatory measures guide benign industry competition, providing guarantees for profit stability.
• Efficiency improvement investments gradually show results, and long-term profit quality is expected to improve.

YTO Express showed the operational characteristics of volume growth and price decline in November 2025. Its business volume growth (+13.55%) is likely to be higher than the industry average, which may drive market share growth. The profit impact of per-ticket revenue decline (-2.17%) is offset by scale economies and cost control; if the cost reduction rate matches, profitability can remain stable. In terms of profit quality, low debt risk coexists with high capital expenditures (efficiency investments); short-term free cash flow is under pressure but has room for improvement in the long run. Industry regulatory anti-involution measures may limit further price declines, providing a stable environment for the company’s business growth.