Analysis of Impression Dahongpao's Hong Kong IPO Oversubscription: Overheated Speculation or Undervaluation?

The Impression Dahongpao Hong Kong IPO incident coincides with the strong recovery cycle of the Hong Kong IPO market in 2025 (total annual fundraising of approximately HK$280 billion, ranking first globally [0]). The 3397.48 times oversubscription rate (if true) is far higher than the market average, reflecting investors’ high attention to China’s cultural consumption sector. Relying on Wuyi Mountain tourism resources and the “Impression·Dahongpao” live performance IP, the company’s core business focuses on tea culture-themed performances, tourism, and tea product sales, benefiting from the industrial trends of domestic consumption upgrade and cultural confidence enhancement.

1. Market Environment Drivers
   : Against the backdrop of the Hong Kong IPO market recovery, low-price issuance (HK$3.6 per share) easily triggers retail investors’ speculative enthusiasm. Combined with the growth expectations of China’s tea culture industry, these factors jointly drive the high subscription rate.
2. IP Value and Business Ambiguity
   : The company’s brand awareness stems from the live performance IP, but core information such as specific business composition and financial status has not been disclosed through the prospectus. Current market enthusiasm is more based on brand recognition rather than fundamental support.
3. Essence of Sentiment Divergence
   : Bullish views focus on the long-term value of cultural IP, while bearish views alert to short-term speculative risks, reflecting the market’s divergence on the valuation logic of the “culture + business” model.

• Risk Points
  : ① Speculative volatility risk on the first day accompanied by high subscription rate; ② Unclear business model leading to lack of valuation anchor; ③ Information accuracy risk if data is unverified.
• Opportunity Window
  : ① Long-term trends of China’s tea culture industry growth and global recognition enhancement; ② Unique competitive advantages of Wuyi Mountain’s geographical and cultural resources; ③ Market allocation demand for cultural consumption assets.

The current event is in the early stage of information disclosure, and core IPO data (issue price, subscription multiple) have not been verified through external sources. Investors need to wait for the release of the company’s prospectus, evaluate the rationality of valuation based on financial status and business model details, and pay attention to the impact of the Hong Kong IPO market environment and cultural industry development trends.

Since the event and analysis are synchronized, relevant news reports have not been released yet. All specific IPO data need to be confirmed by subsequent official announcements.