Impact of U.S. Uranium Enrichment Capacity Expansion on Nuclear Energy Investment Valuations

Centrus Energy announced the launch of domestic centrifuge manufacturing at its Piketon plant in Ohio on December 19, 2025, to support commercial low-enriched uranium (LEU) production. This is a key progress in the localization of the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain [1][2]. On the event day, Centrus’s stock price (LEU) rose from $229.68 to $261.77, an increase of 11.30%; the Uranium Sector ETF (URA) climbed from $43.96 to $45.89, a 3.94% rise, reflecting the market’s positive response to the plan [0].

Centrus has strong order and capital reserves: it holds $2.3 billion in contingent LEU sales orders, had a cash balance exceeding $1.6 billion as of September 30, 2025, and raised $1.2 billion through convertible bonds [1][2]. Meanwhile, the company is the final candidate for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) LEU and High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) production task orders, each worth approximately $900 million, and is expected to receive government funding support [1][2]. Financially, the company’s latest annual free cash flow was $32.9 million, with a moderate debt risk rating [0].

The U.S. nuclear energy revival trend is prominent: the DOE has provided $800 million in funding for Small Modular Reactor (SMR) projects [3]; the Trump administration plans to quadruple U.S. nuclear power generation by 2050 [4][5]. Centrus’s domestic expansion plan aligns with energy security needs, providing stable保障 for the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain.

1. Domestic Capacity as a Valuation Driver
   : Centrus’s U.S. domestic uranium enrichment capacity addresses the risk of relying on external supplies, enhancing its valuation positioning as a core supplier for U.S. nuclear fuel security.
2. Leverage Effect of Government Support
   : If it receives DOE funding support, it will further strengthen the company’s expansion capacity, consolidate its industry position, and provide long-term support for valuation.
3. Sector Linkage Effect
   : Centrus’s expansion plan drove the rise of the Uranium ETF (URA), indicating that the market views it as a key event in the nuclear energy revival, generating positive spillover effects on the investment value of the entire uranium industry chain.

• Geopolitical Conflicts
  : May affect uranium raw material supply or market demand [1].
• Market Demand Fluctuations
  : Changes in the pace of nuclear power development may impact LEU demand [1].
• Supply Chain Disruptions
  : May face equipment or raw material supply issues during expansion [1].
• Competitive Pressure
  : Other uranium enrichment manufacturers may compete for market share [1].

• Nuclear Energy Revival Dividend
  : The U.S. government’s nuclear power expansion plan provides long-term growth space for the uranium enrichment industry [4][5].
• Domestic Supply Chain Advantage
  : Centrus’s domestic capacity has competitive advantages in the context of energy security, and is expected to receive more orders [1][2].

Centrus Energy’s U.S. uranium enrichment expansion plan is an important step in the localization of the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain. On the event day, it triggered a significant rise in stock prices and sector ETFs, reflecting market optimistic expectations. The company’s orders, capital reserves, and potential for government funding provide support for its valuation, while geopolitical issues and market demand risks need to be monitored. This plan aligns with the U.S. nuclear energy revival and energy security trends, and has a positive impact on the investment value of the entire nuclear energy industry chain.