2025 Year-End S&P 500 Bull Market Assessment: Recovery and Resilience

This analysis is based on a Seeking Alpha article [3] published on December 19, 2025, presenting a 3-year weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart with 20-week, 50-week, 200-week SMAs, and MACD indicators—concluding the index remains in a long-term bull market.

The SPX demonstrated strong year-end momentum, gaining 2.54% from October 1 to December 19, 2025, closing at 6834.49 [0]. This period included a 52-week high of 6920.34 [0]. A key highlight is the index’s recovery from the April 2025 “Liberation Day” sell-off: following tariff announcements, the SPX dropped over 12% in one week, hitting a 52-week low of 4835.04 on April 7 [0]. It rebounded 35% by December 19. Through December 11, 2025, the index posted year-to-date gains of over 18% [4][5], building on 24% (2023) and 23% (2024) gains [5].

1. Market Resilience
   : The 35% recovery from the April low underscores the SPX’s ability to absorb policy-driven shocks, indicating strong underlying momentum.
2. Year-End Sentiment
   : Bullish sentiment dominates as the year closes, aligning with potential “Santa Claus rally” trends from portfolio rebalancing and tax considerations.
3. Analyst Divergence
   : While the article [3] maintains a bullish stance, other analysts warn of overvaluation and a potential 2026 correction [1][5], highlighting medium-term uncertainty.

• Overvaluation
  : Some analysts view the SPX as overvalued and overbought, increasing downside risk [1].
• 2026 Uncertainty
  : Divergent forecasts range from a 10% drop [5] to continued optimism, creating ambiguity.
• Trade Policy Volatility
  : The “Liberation Day” wipeout showed vulnerability to sudden trade changes; ongoing tensions could reignite volatility.

• Year-End Momentum
  : Late-2025 uptrend suggests potential for further gains from a traditional year-end rally.
• Resilience Narrative
  : The strong recovery could attract additional equity investment, supporting bullish momentum.

The S&P 500 (SPX) closed 2025 with 35% recovery from its April low to 6834.49 [0], and 2.54% Q4 gains [0]. Year-to-date returns through December 11 exceeded 18% [4][5]. The market’s resilience and year-end momentum support the bull market thesis [3], but overvaluation concerns [1] and divergent 2026 forecasts [5] warrant monitoring. Key factors to watch: Federal Reserve policy, corporate earnings, and trade negotiations.