Analysis of the Reasons for Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) Being Popular and Its Market Impact

1. Ex-dividend Day Dividend Event
   : December 19, 2025, was the ex-dividend day for Kweichow Moutai’s 2025 interim profit distribution, with a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share (including tax), totaling 30 billion yuan [5]. On the ex-dividend day, the stock price opened and closed at 1410.00 yuan, with a trading volume of 2.6509 million shares, which was lower than the 3-month average trading volume of 3.3275 million shares [5].

2. Volume Control Policy and Wholesale Price Rebound
   : In mid-December, the market reported that Kweichow Moutai would implement volume control policies, including suspending supply to dealers in December and cutting non-standard product quotas in 2026, driving the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai to rebound from below the official guide price of 1499 yuan to around 1600 yuan, and sales momentum has improved [5].

3. Industry Recovery Expectations
   : Institutional research reports point out that the food and beverage industry is facing dual recovery opportunities in fundamentals and valuation. The state emphasizes the important position of consumption in economic growth, and consumption fundamentals are expected to bottom out and stabilize in 2026 [5]. As a leading enterprise in the Baijiu industry, Kweichow Moutai benefits from this expectation.

1. Market Sentiment and Analyst Views
   : 29 analysts gave Kweichow Moutai a “Strong Buy” rating, with a 12-month average target price of 1840.54 yuan, representing a potential upside of 30.53% [5]. The rebound in Feitian Moutai’s wholesale price has warmed up market sentiment, and dealers and investors are optimistic about the company’s volume control policy and demand during the Spring Festival peak season [5].

2. Nature of Price Changes on Ex-dividend Day
   : The price change on the ex-dividend day is a normal dividend adjustment, not a change in the company’s fundamentals, and investors need to view it rationally [5]. Although there was no significant fluctuation in the stock price on that day, the long-term impact of the volume control policy and wholesale price rebound is more worthy of attention.

1. Main Risks
   : The Baijiu industry is still in a deep adjustment period, with some liquor companies having high inventory levels and inverted wholesale prices. Although Kweichow Moutai is a leader, it is still affected by the industry environment [5]; the implementation effect of the volume control policy remains to be seen, and if consumer demand does not meet expectations, prices may fluctuate again [5].

2. Opportunity Window
   : The industry recovery expectation provides room for valuation repair for Kweichow Moutai, and analysts are generally optimistic about its long-term performance [5]. If the volume control policy can effectively stabilize wholesale prices, it will further consolidate the company’s market position.

The core reasons for Kweichow Moutai becoming popular include the ex-dividend day dividend event, the volume control policy driving the rebound of wholesale prices, and industry recovery expectations. Although the trading volume on the ex-dividend day was lower than the average level, market sentiment and analyst views are generally optimistic. Investors need to pay attention to the support level at the 52-week low of 1383.18 yuan, the resistance level at the previous high of 1657.99 yuan, and the analyst target price range [5]. At the same time, they need to view the ex-dividend day price adjustment rationally and closely monitor risks such as industry adjustments and policy implementation effects.