Truist’s Keith Lerner Affirms Underlying Market Trend Amid Dec. 18, 2025 Volatility

This analysis is based on a Dec. 18, 2025 CNBC Closing Bell Overtime segment featuring Truist strategist Keith Lerner and 3Fourteen Ventures’ Warren Pies, where Lerner asserted the underlying U.S. stock market trend still deserves the “benefit of the doubt” [2].

On the day of the segment, major U.S. indices closed marginally lower: S&P 500 (^GSPC) at 6,774.75 (-0.05%), NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) at 23,006.36 (-0.02%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) at 47,951.86 (-0.31%) [0]. Despite these small declines, sector breadth was strong, with Utilities (+1.49%), Technology (+1.02%), and Real Estate (+0.41%) leading gains, while Energy (-1.63%) and Industrials (-0.25%) dragged [0].

Over the 22 trading days leading to Dec. 18, the S&P 500 exhibited a modest upward trend, rising from $6,641.19 to $6,774.75 (+2.01%) with a range of $6,521.92 to $6,903.46 and low volatility (0.74%) [0]. Contemporary context identifies two key volatility drivers framing the segment: scrutiny of large-scale AI infrastructure spending (and its near-term profitability) and shifting 2026 Federal Reserve rate cut expectations [1]. Lerner’s comment likely referenced the market’s ability to sustain momentum amid these headwinds, supported by sector breadth and low volatility.

1. Sector Breadth Contradicts Daily Index Declines
   : The strength across most sectors on Dec. 18, despite minor index drops, is a critical signal of underlying market health that aligns with Lerner’s thesis [0].
2. Low Volatility Reinforces Trend Resilience
   : The 0.74% volatility over 30 days indicates a stable upward trajectory, reducing concerns of a near-term reversal [0].
3. Volatility Driven by Transitory Headwinds, Not Fundamentals
   : Current market swings stem from AI ROI uncertainty and Fed policy bets, not broader economic or corporate fundamental weakness [1].
4. Information Gaps Limit Full Context
   : A lack of a publicly available transcript (likely due to recency and the holiday period) means specific indicators Lerner cited and Pies’ counterpoints remain unknown [2].

• AI Profitability Scrutiny
  : Market momentum could falter if AI-related capital expenditures fail to deliver near-term earnings growth; monitoring tech company AI ROI guidance is critical [1].
• Fed Policy Uncertainty
  : Rapid shifts in 2026 rate cut expectations have driven December volatility; Fed communications and inflation data should be closely watched [1].
• Year-End Thin Volumes
  : Holiday trading can amplify market swings, even with a positive underlying trend; overreaction to single-day moves is cautioned [1].

• Sustained Upward Trend Support
  : The 30-day positive trend and low volatility suggest the market may maintain momentum if headwinds ease [0].
• Sector Strength in Defensive and Growth Areas
  : Utilities (defensive) and Technology (growth) posted strong gains, highlighting potential areas of resilience [0].

This report synthesizes data on the Dec. 18, 2025 market action and Keith Lerner’s commentary. The S&P 500 exhibited a 30-day upward trend (+2.01%) with low volatility, and Dec. 18 trading showed strong sector breadth despite minor index declines. Near-term risks include AI profitability concerns and Fed policy uncertainty. Decision-makers should note the information gaps (missing segment transcript, Dec. 18 specific news drivers) and use this analysis for contextual support, not as investment advice.