November 2025 U.S. CPI Report: Analysis Amid Data Reliability Concerns

This analysis is based on the CNBC report published on December 18, 2025, covering the November CPI data [1]. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the delayed report following a 43-day government shutdown, which prevented the collection of October CPI data, resulting in incomplete month-to-month comparisons [1][3]. The November CPI showed headline inflation rising 2.7% year-on-year (YoY), well below the consensus forecast of 3.1%, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) also came in below expectations at 2.6% YoY, down from September’s 3.0% [3][5].

The limited market reaction—slight declines in the S&P 500 (-0.05% [0]), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.31% [0]), and NASDAQ Composite (-0.02% [0])—can be attributed to widespread skepticism about the data’s reliability. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that shutdown-distorted inflation and labor market data should be viewed with a “skeptical eye” [5]. Economists noted data collection was delayed late into November, coinciding with holiday season discounts that may have temporarily suppressed prices, leading to expectations of inflation acceleration in December [3]. Additionally, the BLS did not publish month-to-month changes for November due to missing October data, further limiting the report’s utility in assessing near-term inflation trends [1][2][3].

1. Shutdown-Induced Data Limitations
   : The 43-day government shutdown disrupted BLS data collection, resulting in incomplete CPI reports (missing October data) and delayed November data collection during holiday discounts, undermining the report’s reliability as a gauge of true inflation trends [1][3].
2. Policy Uncertainty
   : The distorted data may lead the Federal Reserve to hesitate in adjusting interest rates, prolonging monetary policy uncertainty for market participants [5].
3. Consumer Sentiment Link
   : Persistent inflation concerns and labor market uncertainty (exacerbated by shutdown-related data gaps) contributed to a decline in consumer confidence to its lowest level since April 2025 [4].

• Risks
  :
  • Distorted policy decisions by the Fed due to unreliable CPI data [5].
  • Potential inflation acceleration in December as holiday season discounts fade [3].
  • Prolonged market uncertainty until more complete December CPI data is released in early January 2026 [3].
  • Eroded consumer confidence further impacting spending [4].

• Opportunities
  :
  • The upcoming December CPI report is expected to provide complete data, offering a clearer picture of inflation trends and reducing market uncertainty.

The November 2025 CPI report showed a surprising slowdown in inflation, but its reliability is compromised by the 43-day government shutdown, which caused missing October data and delayed November data collection during holiday discounts. Widespread skepticism from the Federal Reserve and economists led to muted market reactions despite the positive inflation figures. Investors and decision-makers should monitor the upcoming December CPI report (expected early January 2026) for a more accurate assessment of inflation trends, and remain aware of the potential for policy uncertainty and inflation acceleration in the short term.