Analysis of the Impact of China's Two Major Satellite Constellation Systems on the Investment Value of A-share Aerospace Industry Chain Companies

Based on the collected information, I will conduct an in-depth analysis of the impact of China’s two major satellite constellation systems on the investment value of A-share aerospace industry chain companies.

Qianfan Constellation is led by Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. As of November 2025, it has launched a total of 108 network satellites (excluding 4 test satellites before 2024). As one of China’s three 10,000-satellite constellation plans, the constellation is rapidly advancing large-scale networking [3].

China Satellite Network (GW Constellation), as a satellite internet project led by the national team, has launched a total of 116 satellites (including test satellites and operational satellites) so far. The constellation and Qianfan Constellation form a differentiated development pattern, jointly promoting the construction of China’s low-orbit satellite internet [3].

• Long March 8A:
  Has successfully launched at the Hainan Commercial Aerospace Launch Site, sending 14 groups of low-orbit satellite internet satellites into the intended orbit [1]
• Tianlong-3:
  As China’s first large reusable liquid rocket with a capacity exceeding 20 tons, it completed the key test of “one rocket carrying 36 satellites” and is expected to make its first flight by the end of 2025, supporting more than 60 high-frequency launches per year [1]
• Commercial Launch Scale:
  The number of commercial rocket launches in China increased from 1 in 2017 to 16 in 2024, and as of November 2025, 15 commercial rocket launches have been completed [1]

The

in Wenchang International Space City is about to start production, with the following features:

• Capacity Scale:
  Annual capacity of 1,000 satellites
• Technical Architecture:
  Adopts the “1+1+8” architecture (1 super factory, 1 test and detection center, 8 core unit R&D centers)
• Production Features:
  The only production base in China that can realize satellite assembly and star-rocket fairing integration, and also the largest satellite manufacturing base in Asia
• Production Efficiency:
  Realizes seamless connection of “satellite leaves factory ready for launch”, forming an efficient model of “parts come in, star-rocket combination goes out” [1]

Reusable technology has become the key to reducing launch costs:

• Cost Structure:
  The rocket body and propulsion system account for about 60%-80% of the rocket cost; key structure reuse can significantly reduce launch costs
• Fuel Technology:
  Liquid oxygen methane, with advantages of low cost and less carbon deposition, is expected to become the mainstream fuel
• Scale Effect:
  Large-scale, recoverable commercial rockets provide abundant low-cost transportation capacity support for space infrastructure construction [1]

• Surge in Demand:
  The two constellations have a total plan of tens of thousands of satellites, bringing highly certain market demand
• Technological Upgrade:
  Satellite manufacturing evolves towards modular design, automated testing, and batch assembly, and capacity will see concentrated release
• Investment Value:
  Enterprises with satellite assembly capacity will directly benefit from constellation networking demand

• Increase in Launch Density:
  Starting from the end of 2025, new commercial rocket models such as Zhuque-3, Tianlong-3, Yinyi-2, Shuangquxian-3, and Zhishenxing-1 will迎来 their first flights
• Business Model Innovation:
  If reusable rockets realize recoverability, it will greatly reduce launch costs and increase launch frequency
• Market Space:
  The acceleration of low-orbit satellite constellation networking will trigger explosive growth in the launch service market

• Technical Barriers:
  Core components such as radio frequency chips, propulsion systems, and control systems have high technical thresholds
• Domestic Substitution:
  There is an urgent demand for localization in the aerospace field, and core component suppliers have long-term growth potential
• Scale Effect:
  The large-scale construction of constellations will drive sustained growth in demand for core components

The global satellite internet market size is expected to reach 1 trillion US dollars by 2040, with compound annual growth rates of 4%, 5%, and 23% for government budgets, satellite industry, and new application industries respectively [2]. The rapid development of China’s constellation projects provides huge market opportunities for A-share related enterprises.

China’s commercial aerospace is moving from the verification stage to the engineering application and scale development stage [3]. The technological evolution path of reusable, low-cost, and large-capacity will reshape the industrial pattern, and enterprises with core technologies will obtain excess returns.

Satellite internet is included in the national new infrastructure category, and policy support continues to increase. Policy advantages such as Hainan Free Trade Port provide institutional guarantees for industrial development, and innovative models such as international satellite data bonded zones will attract global resource convergence [1].

The traditional aerospace industry valuation is mainly based on military orders, while the civilian nature and scale effect of commercial aerospace will bring about the reconstruction of the valuation system. Enterprises with commercialization capabilities and scale effects are expected to obtain higher valuation premiums.

1. Focus on Capacity Landing:
   Pay attention to the production progress of the Satellite Super Factory and the capacity expansion of related enterprises
2. Technical Breakthrough Nodes:
   Closely track the first flight and commercial operation progress of reusable rockets
3. Policy Catalyst Timing:
   Watch changes in national-level aerospace policies and commercial aerospace regulatory policies
4. Industry Chain Integration:
   Follow the trends of horizontal integration and vertical integration in the industry

1. Technical Risks:
   Key technologies such as rocket reusability and satellite networking still have uncertainties
2. Competition Risks:
   Global satellite internet competition intensifies, and international giants such as SpaceX have first-mover advantages
3. Policy Risks:
   The aerospace industry is greatly affected by the international political environment, and geopolitical risks need to be focused on
4. Market Risks:
   The investment scale of constellation construction is huge, and the profit cycle is long; need to guard against capital chain risks

The rapid development of China’s two major satellite constellation systems marks the entry of China’s commercial aerospace into a high-speed development period [3]. The collaborative advancement of Qianfan Constellation and China Satellite Network, combined with the capacity release of the Satellite Super Factory and technological breakthroughs in reusable rockets, will bring unprecedented development opportunities to A-share aerospace industry chain-related companies.

Investors should focus on high-quality enterprises with core technologies, capacity scale, and commercialization capabilities, while closely monitoring technical breakthrough nodes and policy change timing. While seizing the dividends of industrial development, effectively guard against various risks to achieve long-term value investment.

[1] Jinling API Data
[2] Yahoo Finance - “Annual Production of 1,000 Units! China’s Satellite Super Factory to Start Production, Multiple Rockets Prepare for First Flight” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/年產1-000顆-中國衛星超級工廠即將投產-多枚火箭籌備首飛-210003030.html)
[3] Yahoo Finance - “Targeting SpaceX Starlink! China’s Three 10,000-satellite Constellation Plans Push Commercial Aerospace into High-speed Development Period” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/劍指spacex星鏈-中國三大萬顆星座計畫-推動商業航天領域進入高速發展期-012003454.html)