Pre-Market Brief - December 18, 2025

December 18, 2025 at 8:30 AM EST
Pre-market trading active (4:00 AM - 9:30 AM EST)
Comprehensive pre-market analysis for US equities including after-hours activity, pre-market movements, news impact, futures, earnings, and economic data

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The pre-market session on December 18, 2025 reflects a highly volatile environment shaped by several key factors: the highly anticipated November CPI report released at 8:30 AM EST following a 43-day government shutdown, triple witching expiration, and ongoing sector rotations. Major indices show modest pre-market declines with S&P 500 down 0.48%, Dow Jones down 0.73%, and Nasdaq Composite down 0.13%. Individual stocks display dramatic movements, led by Medline Inc. (MDLN) with an extraordinary +41.38% surge and ASML Holding showing significant weakness at -5.63%. The market is positioned for potential volatility following the CPI release, which could support a year-end “Santa Claus rally” if inflation data meets expectations.

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Index	Pre-Market Level	Change	60-Day Performance	Volatility	Current Trend
S&P 500	6,783.49	-0.48%	+0.77%	0.80%	Below 20-day MA ($6,788.81)
Dow Jones	48,064.34	-0.73%	+3.27%	0.73%	Above 20-day MA ($47,511.49)
Nasdaq Composite	23,028.43	-0.13%	+0.16%	1.15%	Below 20-day MA ($23,152.40)

• Advancing Issues:
  Limited, with few stocks showing sustained gains
• Declining Issues:
  Broad-based weakness across major sectors
• 52-Week Highs/Lows:
  Mixed - TLRY and MDLN near recent highs, ASML and PFE near 20-day lows
• VIX Indicator:
  Elevated due to CPI release and triple witching

• Pre-Market Volume:
  Approximately 30% of average daily volume
• Bid-Ask Spreads:
  Widened due to reduced liquidity
• Market Depth:
  Shallow order books amplifying price movements

Symbol	Company	Pre-Market Change	Volume	Key Technical Signal
MDLN	Medline Inc.	+41.38%	78.70M	Extreme momentum - high risk/reward
TLRY	Tilray Brands	+28.78% (yesterday)	29.60M	High volatility - speculative trading
AFRM	Affirm Holdings	+10.54% (yesterday)	6.75M	Accumulation pattern - bullish setup
ASML	ASML Holding	-5.63%	2.10M	Distribution phase - bearish momentum
PFE	Pfizer Inc.	-4.84% (yesterday)	59.67M	Oversold conditions - potential bounce
CRCL	Circle Internet	+8.39% (yesterday)	10.78M	Accumulation on weakness - bullish

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The November 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was released at 8:30 AM EST on December 18, 2025, marking the first inflation data publication since September 2025 following a 43-day government shutdown. This delayed release carries significant market weight due to:

• Shutdown Impact:
  The extended government shutdown disrupted data collection, raising concerns about data quality and accuracy
• Market Expectations:
  Pre-release forecasts anticipated a 2.9% year-over-year inflation rate
• Market Implications:
  If confirmed, inflation data could support a year-end “Santa Claus rally” in equities
• Volatility Potential:
  Cross-currents including recent Fed rate cuts, AI sector rotation, thin liquidity, and triple witching expiration create conditions for outsized market reactions

Ahead of the CPI release, S&P 500 futures showed slight upward movement, suggesting cautious optimism. The market environment is characterized by:

• Recent Fed rate cut aftermath
• Ongoing rotation from mega-cap AI stocks to other sectors
• Thin pre-market liquidity conditions
• Triple witching expiration increasing gamma exposure
  

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Significant weakness with ASML declining 5.63% in pre-market trading

• Technical Position:
  Bearish momentum with MACD below signal line
• Support Level:
  $946.11 (20-day rolling low)
• Resistance Level:
  $1,141.72 (20-day rolling high)
• Volume Analysis:
  38% above average volume on declines suggests distribution
• Market Implication:
  Semiconductor weakness may indicate broader tech sector pressure

Extreme volatility following yesterday’s +32.64% surge

• Technical Divergence:
  Mixed signals with bullish MACD but bearish recent price action
• Volume Spike:
  191% above average (29.60M vs 10.17M avg) indicates institutional repositioning
• Risk Profile:
  High volatility suitable only for risk-tolerant traders
• Support Level:
  $6.90 (recent swing low)
• Resistance Level:
  $14.70 (20-day rolling high)

Accumulation patterns with bullish momentum

• Technical Signal:
  Buy with strength +3
• RSI:
  55.9 (momentum zone)
• Entry Opportunity:
  $68-70 on weakness with targets at $78.60

Low-volume declines suggest institutional buying

• Technical Signal:
  Buy with strength +3
• Volume Pattern:
  0.69x ratio (below average) indicates accumulation
• Target:
  $91.30 (20-day high) with support at $64.92

Extraordinary 41.38% pre-market gain following yesterday’s 17.14% surge

• Volume Analysis:
  Trading at average volume despite massive price move suggests institutional accumulation
• Risk Assessment:
  High risk/reward with potential data anomaly in market cap ($716.95B)
• Trading Strategy:
  Monitor sustainability of gains with tight risk management

Oversold conditions in established downtrend

• RSI:
  42.9 approaching oversold levels
• Support:
  $24.28 (20-day rolling low)
• Opportunity:
  Potential bounce play requiring confirmation above $25.50

1. TLRY:
   191% above average volume - significant institutional activity
2. ASML:
   38% above average volume on declines - distribution pattern
3. ACN:
   17% above average volume following earnings beat
4. AFRM:
   14% above average volume - accumulation pattern

• MDLN:
  Average volume on massive price move suggests institutional buying
• PFE:
  Below-average volume on decline indicates limited selling pressure
• CRCL:
  Below-average volume on decline suggests accumulation rather than panic selling

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+3 (Strong Buy)

• Entry Strategy:
  $68-70 on any weakness
• Price Target:
  $78.60 (20-day high)
• Stop Loss:
  $60.29 (20-day low)
• Risk/Reward:
  Favorable with clear support/resistance levels
• Confirmation:
  Bullish MACD crossover and RSI in momentum zone

+3 (Strong Buy)

• Entry Strategy:
  Above $81 on strength confirmation
• Price Target:
  $91.30 (20-day high)
• Stop Loss:
  $64.92 (20-day low)
• Pattern:
  Accumulation with bullish MACD
• Volume Profile:
  Low-volume declines suggest stealth accumulation

+1 (Hold with bullish bias)

• Challenge:
  Extreme volatility with conflicting technical signals
• Strategy:
  Wait for sustained move above $13.50
• Risk:
  Gap risk due to extreme pre-market activity
• Volume Indicator:
  2.04x ratio suggests major institutional repositioning

-1 (Hold with bearish bias)

• Pattern:
  Established downtrend with potential oversold bounce
• Support:
  $946.11 critical level
• Strategy:
  Counter-trend plays only for experienced traders
• Risk:
  Bearish momentum may continue despite oversold conditions

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+0.62% following earnings beat

• EPS:
  $3.76 vs. analyst estimate $3.74
• Revenue:
  $18.7 billion
• Volume:
  5.34M (17% above average)
• Market Impact:
  Modest positive reaction typical for large-cap consulting
• Technical Position:
  Consolidation following earnings announcement

The earnings beat demonstrates continued strength in consulting and IT services, but the muted market reaction suggests investors were already positioned for positive results.

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1. CPI Report Impact:
   The delayed inflation data release at 8:30 AM EST could significantly influence risk appetite and market direction
2. Triple Witching Expiration:
   Options and futures expiration increases volatility potential and gamma exposure
3. Thin Liquidity:
   Holiday season trading conditions amplifying price movements
4. Sector Rotation:
   Ongoing reallocation from AI/mega-cap stocks to other sectors

• Highest Risk:
  TLRY (recent +32.64% move, current volatility extreme)
• Medium Risk:
  MDLN (massive gains but potential sustainability questions)
• Stable Setup:
  AFRM (consistent accumulation patterns)

• Use tight stops given elevated volatility conditions
• Monitor CPI release impact on overall market direction
• Consider waiting for regular session opening for better liquidity
• Maintain flexible positions with ability to react quickly to economic data

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1. AFRM and CRCL
   present the best risk/reward setups with clear accumulation patterns and bullish technical indicators
2. TLRY
   offers high-risk/high-reward potential but requires confirmation of sustained momentum
3. ASML and PFE
   may present counter-trend opportunities for experienced traders

• CPI Data Reaction:
  Market response to inflation data will set tone for trading session
• Volume Confirmation:
  Watch for sustained volume patterns supporting price movements
• Sector Leadership:
  Technology weakness vs. fintech strength may guide sector allocation decisions

• Rotation Patterns:
  Movement away from mega-cap AI stocks into fintech, cannabis, and healthcare names
• Liquidity Conditions:
  Holiday trading likely to continue through year-end
• Economic Data Flow:
  Resumption of regular data releases following government shutdown

• Maintain diversified exposure across sectors to mitigate rotation risk
• Use technical levels for position sizing and stop placement
• Monitor macro developments including Fed policy and economic data releases
• Implement volatility-adjusted position sizing given elevated market uncertainty
• Maintain cash reserves of 10-15% for opportunities following CPI release
• Consider hedging strategies using inverse ETFs during high-volatility periods

• Large-cap quality stocks with stable earnings (defensive positioning)
• Sector ETFs providing broad diversification
• Cash position maintained for flexibility

• Fintech sector exposure through AFRM and CRCL based on technical strength
• Volatility trading opportunities in high-beta names like TLRY
• Sector rotation plays capitalizing on technology weakness

• Momentum stocks like MDLN with clear risk management
• Event-driven trades around CPI release impact
• Options strategies for triple witching expiration

• Technology underperformance contributing to portfolio drag
• Fintech strength providing positive alpha generation
• Healthcare mixed results requiring selective positioning

• Technical analysis effectiveness in identifying accumulation patterns
• Volume analysis confirming institutional activity
• Risk management preventing excessive exposure to volatile names

• Pre-market trading providing alpha generation opportunities
• CPI release creating sector rotation catalysts
• Triple witching expiration amplifying technical signal effectiveness

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Stock	Signal	RSI	MACD	Volume Ratio	Support	Resistance	Risk Level
AFRM	Buy	55.9	Bullish	1.32x	$60.29	$78.60	Medium
CRCL	Buy	55.8	Bullish	0.69x	$64.92	$91.30	Medium
TLRY	Hold	59.3	Bullish	2.04x	$6.90	$14.70	High
ASML	Hold	45.8	Bearish	1.42x	$946.11	$1,141.72	Medium
PFE	Hold	42.9	Bearish	1.18x	$24.28	$26.65	Low

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• Capital outflows from large-cap semiconductor stocks (ASML) indicating sector rotation
• Inflows into fintech and growth-oriented stocks (AFRM, CRCL) suggesting risk appetite shift
• Reduced exposure to AI/mega-cap stocks in favor of more reasonably valued growth names

• Healthcare sector showing mixed signals (MDLN strength vs PFE weakness)
• Consumer discretionary activity through fintech plays suggests continued consumer spending confidence
• Materials sector stability through mining equipment orders indicates economic resilience

• Pre-market dominated by institutional block trades in TLRY (47.41M volume yesterday)
• Retail participation concentrated in momentum stocks like MDLN
• Algorithmic trading systems likely amplifying volatility around key technical levels

• Triple witching expiration creating gamma exposure imbalances
• Put/call ratios skewed toward put buying in technology stocks
• Call writing pressure on overextended momentum names

The December 18, 2025 pre-market session presents a complex trading environment characterized by:

• Elevated Volatility:
  Driven by CPI release, triple witching expiration, and sector rotations creating cross-currents
• Mixed Technical Signals:
  Clear divergence between sectors with fintech showing strength while technology remains under pressure
• Liquidity Constraints:
  Holiday trading conditions (approximately 30% of normal volume) amplifying price movements
• Economic Uncertainty:
  Delayed CPI data following 43-day government shutdown creating heightened market sensitivity
• Structural Shifts:
  Evidence of significant sector rotation away from AI/mega-cap stocks into fintech and growth stories

1. Best Opportunities:
   AFRM and CRCL offer the most favorable risk/reward setups with clear technical patterns and institutional accumulation
2. Highest Risk:
   TLRY provides high volatility trading opportunities but requires careful risk management
3. Market Catalyst:
   CPI report reaction will likely dictate overall market direction for the session
4. Sector Rotation:
   Ongoing movement away from large-cap technology into fintech and growth stocks

• Focus on AFRM and CRCL for trend-following strategies
• Use TLRY for volatility-based trading with tight risk controls
• Monitor ASML and PFE for potential oversold bounce opportunities

• Maintain defensive positioning given elevated volatility
• Consider exposure to fintech sector based on relative strength
• Reduce technology exposure following ASML weakness
• Keep liquidity available for opportunities following CPI release

• Use tight stop-losses given triple witching volatility (2-3% maximum loss per position)
• Monitor position sizes carefully in thin liquidity conditions (reduce normal sizing by 30-40%)
• Be prepared for rapid market reactions to economic data (CPI could trigger 2-3% index moves)
• Maintain flexibility to adjust positions based on CPI impact (have pre-defined scenarios ready)
• Implement trailing stops on profitable positions to protect gains in volatile environment
• Consider correlation risk - many pre-market movers may move together on CPI surprise

• Market Reaction:
  Mild relief rally, 0.5-1.0% index gains
• Strategy:
  Add to high-conviction long positions (AFRM, CRCL)
• Sectors:
  Growth and cyclical stocks likely to outperform
• Risk:
  Potential for “sell the news” after initial rally

• Market Reaction:
  Strong rally, 1.5-2.5% index gains possible
• Strategy:
  Increase equity exposure, focus on growth sectors
• Sectors:
  Technology, consumer discretionary, and small caps strongest
• Risk:
  Overextension and potential reversal

• Market Reaction:
  Significant sell-off, 1-2% index declines
• Strategy:
  Reduce equity exposure, increase defensive positions
• Sectors:
  Healthcare, utilities, consumer staples outperform
• Risk:
  Oversold conditions creating bounce opportunities

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[0] Ginlix Quantitative Database
[1] S&P 500 (^GSPC) Charts, Data & News (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^GSPC/)
[2] Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as Micron boosts tech after sell-off, CPI report looms (https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-futures-rise-as-micron-boosts-tech-after-sell-off-cpi-report-looms-230752495.html)
[3] Economic Events Calendar for December 18, 2025 (https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/economic?day=2025-12-18)
[4] Accenture shares gain as Q1 earnings and bookings top estimates (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/accenture-shares-gain-q1-earnings-122115121.html)
[5] CPI Report Today: November Inflation Data Incoming (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/cpi-report-today-inflation-stock-market-12-18-2025)
[6] November’s inflation report is the first to be released after the shutdown. Here’s what to expect (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/17/novembers-inflation-report-is-the-first-to-be-released-after-the-shutdown.html)
[7] US Stock Market Week Ahead (Dec. 15–19, 2025): Delayed Jobs & CPI Data, AI-Trade Volatility, and a High-Stakes Year-End Test (https://ts2.tech/en/us-stock-market-week-ahead-dec-15-19-2025-delayed-jobs-cpi-data-ai-trade-volatility-and-a-high-stakes-year-end-test/)
[8] CPI Report Today: S&P 500 Futures Inch Up Ahead of Inflation Data (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/cpi-report-today-inflation-stock-market-12-18-2025/card/here-s-how-inflation-has-trended-since-2015-9Eoji1drlBLaeJVZTP4z)
[9] Costco Stock After Hours (Dec. 17, 2025): COST Ends Green as Investors Digest a New 10-Q, Renewal-Rate Debate—What to Watch Before Thursday’s CPI (https://ts2.tech/en/costco-stock-after-hours-dec-17-2025-cost-ends-green-as-investors-digest-a-new-10-q-renewal-rate-debate-what-to-watch-before-thursdays-cpi/)
[10] Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News (https://finance.yahoo.com/)
[11] Silver Storm Orders La Parrilla Underground Mining Fleet (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silver-storm-orders-la-parrilla-120000581.html)
[12] Applied Digital Completes Development Loan Facility with Macquarie (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/applied-digital-completes-development-loan-131500947.html)
[13] PublicSquare Announces $7.5 Million Registered Direct Offering (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/publicsquare-announces-7-5-million-124800531.html)

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• Market Direction:
  Consolidation with modest upward bias
• Key Driver:
  CPI data meeting expectations with no major surprises
• Index Targets:
  S&P 500 6,800-6,850 range
• Sector Leaders:
  Fintech, select growth stocks, defensive rotation
• Volatility:
  Moderately elevated but contained

• Market Direction:
  Strong rally driven by better-than-expected CPI data
• Key Driver:
  Inflation showing clear moderation, supporting year-end rally
• Index Targets:
  S&P 500 testing 6,900 resistance
• Sector Leaders:
  Technology, consumer discretionary, small caps
• Volatility:
  Initially high, then declining as rally gains momentum

• Market Direction:
  Sharp decline on higher-than-expected CPI data
• Key Driver:
  Inflation stickiness raising rate concerns
• Index Targets:
  S&P 500 testing 6,700 support
• Sector Leaders:
  Healthcare, utilities, consumer staples
• Volatility:
  Very high with potential for capitulation selling

• Sector Rotation:
  Technology sector likely to face continued pressure through year-end
• Liquidity Dynamics:
  Holiday trading conditions to persist into early January
• Economic Data Flow:
  Resumption of regular data releases post-shutdown
• Federal Reserve Policy:
  Rate cut implications filtering through market expectations

• Tactical Opportunities:
  Focus on momentum and technical setups rather than fundamentals
• Risk Management:
  Maintain higher cash levels (15-20%) during elevated volatility
• Sector Allocation:
  Increase exposure to fintech and growth cyclicals
• International Exposure:
  Consider global diversification as US dollar volatility increases

1. CPI Data Surprise:
   Unexpected inflation readings could trigger major market moves
2. Liquidity Vacuum:
   Holiday trading conditions exacerbating price moves
3. Technical Breakdowns:
   Key support levels failing could cascade into broader selling
4. Sector Concentration:
   Over-exposure to fintech rotation creating correlation risk

1. Pre-Defined Scenarios:
   Establish clear entry/exit strategies for CPI outcomes
2. Position Sizing:
   Reduce normal position sizes by 30-40% in volatile conditions
3. Diversification:
   Maintain exposure across multiple sectors and asset classes
4. Technical Validation:
   Require multiple indicator confirmation before adding positions

1. AFRM Long Position:
   Accumulation pattern with clear technical confirmation
2. CRCL Accumulation:
   Low-volume decline suggesting institutional buying
3. TLRY Volatility Trading:
   Range-bound trading within $6.90-$14.70 channel
4. ASML Oversold Bounce:
   Counter-trend opportunity on further weakness

• Use options for defined-risk exposure to high-volatility names
• Implement time-based stops for momentum positions
• Maintain correlation awareness across sector rotation plays
• Consider hedging using inverse ETFs during extreme volatility

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December 18, 2025 at 8:30 AM EST
Pre-market conditions, technical analysis, economic data impact, and trading strategies
High volatility environment with CPI release as key catalyst
Post-market analysis scheduled for December 18, 2025 closing
Real-time market data, technical analysis, economic releases, earnings reports, and Ginlix Quantitative Database

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading during high-volatility periods involves substantial risk of loss. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions.