Nasdaq Forecasts 2026 Surge in Billion-Dollar IPOs: Market Implications

This analysis draws from the December 18, 2025, Reuters report [1] where a Nasdaq executive forecasted a surge in billion-dollar-plus IPOs for 2026, led by major startups like SpaceX (targeting a potential $1.5 trillion valuation), Anthropic, and OpenAI (seeking a $750 billion valuation) [0]. The announcement comes immediately after Medline’s successful $6.26 billion IPO on Nasdaq—2025’s largest global IPO—which priced on December 17, 2025 [0].

In the short term, the news could lift investor sentiment toward the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), which closed at 22,693.32 on December 17, 2025, down 1.91% on the day [0]. Investment banks involved in IPO underwriting (GS, MS, JPM) may also benefit from improved sentiment as they stand to gain significant underwriting fees from these blockbuster listings.

Medium-term implications include enhanced attractiveness of the Nasdaq exchange to both companies and investors, potentially driving index growth. The entry of high-valuation startups could also reshape index weightings and market dynamics [0]. The combination of Medline’s successful IPO and Nasdaq’s positive forecast signals a recovery in the U.S. IPO market after a period of volatility [1].

1. Market Confidence Signal
   : The forecasted IPO surge, coupled with Medline’s success, indicates growing confidence in U.S. equity markets, reversing recent IPO market choppiness [1].
2. Underwriter Fee Windfall
   : Investment banks (GS, MS, JPM) are poised to earn substantial underwriting fees from billion-dollar IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI [0].
3. Index Impact
   : High-valuation listings could significantly alter the Nasdaq Composite’s composition and weightings, potentially driving long-term index performance [0].

• Delays or below-expectation pricing of anticipated IPOs could lead to investor disappointment [0].
• Unexpected rises in interest rates may dampen IPO sentiment by increasing borrowing costs and reducing equity appeal [0].
• Regulatory changes or heightened market volatility could disrupt the success of these large listings [0].

• Nasdaq’s positive forecast enhances its competitiveness as a listing venue for high-growth startups [1].
• Underwriting banks can capitalize on increased demand for IPO services, boosting fee revenue [0].
• Investors may gain access to high-potential startups, diversifying investment portfolios [0].

The December 18, 2025, Reuters report [1] details Nasdaq’s expectation of a 2026 surge in billion-dollar-plus IPOs, driven by major startups including SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. This follows Medline’s $6.26 billion IPO (2025’s largest) on Nasdaq, which priced on December 17, 2025 [0]. The announcement signals growing confidence in U.S. equity markets and may impact investor sentiment toward the Nasdaq Composite and underwriting investment banks (GS, MS, JPM). While opportunities exist for exchanges, underwriters, and investors, risks such as IPO delays, interest rate hikes, and regulatory changes warrant consideration.