Commercial Aerospace Policy Evolution & A-share Investment Value Analysis

##1. Policy Logic Sorting and Investment Value Transmission

1. Phased Policy Evolution Logic:
   • 2007-2013 (Exploratory Opening): Through “civil-military integration” and “commercial aerospace pilot program” to release initial market signals, policy attention was limited, mainly led by central enterprises and research institutes, with high risks but initial opportunity windows emerging.
   • 2014-2018 (Accelerated Opening): Introduced “marketization principle” and “encourage private participation”; private companies like Linkspace Aerospace and LandSpace Aerospace began to attempt technological breakthroughs, and policies started using funds + demand to incentivize rocket launch services and satellite manufacturing.
   • 2019-2023 (Orderly Standardization): Policies focused on safety and compliance, formulation of commercial standards and launch license systems, gradually establishing risk control mechanisms, while promoting the commercialization of domestic small satellites and ground systems; the industry entered a large-scale integration phase.
   • 2023-Present (Officially Included in Strategic Emerging Industries): Positioned as “full-chain marketization” and “national strategic emerging industry”, leading to comprehensive efforts in financing environment, policy dividends, and civil-military collaboration; capital and industry sides expect acceleration, bringing supporting policies, special bonds support, and research project orientation.

2. Investment Value Transmission Logic:
   • Policy Release-Valuation Reassessment Cycle
     : As policy intensity levels rise (see attached chart), private aerospace companies gradually move from the high-risk/low-return “exploration phase” to the “explosive growth phase”, and capital markets’ recognition of future revenue expectations, domestic substitution, and civil-military integration capabilities continues to strengthen.
   • Risk Control and Marketization Acceleration Overlap
     : After the “orderly standardization” phase, the government has higher requirements for launch safety, commercial contracts, and financing transparency, prompting leading private aerospace companies to strengthen business barriers and reduce policy uncertainty. After entering the “strategic emerging industry” category, we can expect multiple financing channels such as STAR Market listing, special bonds, and industrial funds to overlap with stable cash flow, supporting valuation.

3. Practice Path Example (Taking A-share Comparable Targets as Examples):
   • Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding (000901.SZ)
     : Although its main business is aerospace supporting components (still at the front end of the aerospace industry chain), its market capitalization has reached 18.8 billion Yuan, PE is around 113x, and its stock price rose by about 152% between 2024 and 2025, reflecting policy expectations and industry chain premiums. [0]
   • Valuation Drivers
     : Policy-driven industry chain orders expand to upstream bulk and launch services, which is expected to boost revenue and gross margin; if actively participating in aerospace equipment or common technology projects (such as data links, propellant supply), growth elasticity will further open.

##2. Valuation and Investment Judgment Framework

1. Benchmark Indicator Reference (000901.SZ):
   • Price Range: 9.35 Yuan at the beginning of 2024 → 23.60 Yuan on December 18, 2025; annualized growth rate over 120%.
   • Financial Performance: ROE is only 3.9%, net profit margin is 2.77%, reflecting it is still in the heavy investment phase; but high PE of 147x (real-time quoted price) reflects capital’s expectations for future elasticity. [0]
   • Trading Activity: Average daily volume 40.82M, indicating high capital attention. [0]

2. Policy Linkage Impact Path:
   • Capital Market Access Opening: The STAR Market and registration system have increased the financing willingness of commercial aerospace enterprises, accelerating project incubation speed.
   • Demand-Driven: Policies encourage the development of “aerospace + data” (satellite internet, remote sensing + AI), driving order growth for aerospace electronics, optoelectronics, propulsion, and other component enterprises.
   • Valuation Upgrade: The industry transitions from policy-driven valuation (high PE, unstable profits) to profit expectation-based; if profit realization occurs after entering the “strategic emerging industry” category, ROE and cash flow improvement will bring valuation repair space.

3. Investment Grading and Risk Preference Recommendations (Refer to Attached Chart “Commercial Aerospace Investment Risk-Return Matrix”):
   • Exploration/Startup Phase Enterprises (Risk 8-6): It is recommended to use innovative small-cap or early-stage projects as auxiliary positions, focusing on R&D and government order guarantees.
   • Growth/Explosive Phase Enterprises (Risk4-3): Prioritize leading enterprises with launch services, high reusability, or satellite downstream applications (remote sensing AI, communication), focusing on gross margin improvement and cash flow positive nodes.

##3. Strategic Implementation Recommendations

1. Select Suitable A-share Targets
   : Prioritize enterprises with “full industry chain collaboration” + “quantifiable orders” + “about to or already tapped into the capital market”, such as those involved in launch services (LandSpace, Linkspace), satellite manufacturing and ground payloads (Geovis, Aerospace Communication), etc.
2. Focus on Government-Guided Projects and Subsidies
   : Policy documents emphasize science and technology innovation guidance funds, major science and technology projects, tax incentives, etc., which will directly strengthen industry cash flow and R&D margins.
3. Portfolio Strategy
   : Adopt the “growth core + theme supporting” strategy: core positions focus on launch/satellite enterprises with verified performance, supporting positions cover high-elasticity sub-industries such as aerospace supporting components, software-defined satellite ground stations, and aerospace data applications.
4. Focus on External Variables
   : International situation (such as U.S. technology restrictions) and industry chain linkage (marine + aviation + satellite) will bring medium-to-long-term uncertainties; hedging allocation can be made to companies with export capacity and independent and controllable technology characteristics.

##4. Chart Support (Derived from Simulated Analysis Chart Based on Policy Phase Setting)

The upper part of the chart shows the evolution of policy phase intensity from 2007 to 2025, and the lower part shows the investment risk-return stratification, corresponding to the evolution of policies from exploratory to explosive growth, indicating that increased policy intensity helps to提升 market expectations for commercial aerospace investment.

##Conclusion

• As commercial aerospace evolves from exploratory to national strategic emerging industry, policies have shifted from “allowing” to “supporting” and “cultivating”, creating a window for revaluation of related A-share enterprises.
• At the current stage, we can focus on targets that have achieved commercial orders, have technical barriers, and have expectations of STAR Market listing or low valuation switching; at the same time, keep dynamic attention to supporting enterprises in the industry chain.
• It is recommended to regularly adjust positions based on policy nodes (special fund announcement, launch service license, deep civil-military integration projects) and financial progress (gross margin/ROE improvement, positive cash flow).

##References
[0] Gilin API Data (including 000901.SZ stock price, real-time market conditions and company overview, chart analysis)