Analysis of Kweichow Moutai's 2025-2026 Supply Control Policies and Their Market and Investment Impacts

Kweichow Moutai’s announcement in December 2025 stated: From now until January 1, 2026, it will suspend the distribution of all Moutai products to dealers and further reduce non-standard product quotas (15-year, 1L Feitian, zodiac, and colored glaze treasures will be cut by 30%, 30%, 50%, and 100% respectively). At the same time, it clarified that dealers who ship at prices below 1650 yuan/bottle will have their qualifications revoked. This policy directly targets disorderly hoarding and low-price dumping at the channel level, aiming to quickly return purchasing power to a rational supply side and tighten the supply through quota constraints.

1. Supply-Side Led Inventory Reduction
   : The policy drastically cuts quotas and suspends shipments, artificially reducing the “supply flow” from manufacturers to channels in the short term, and disconnects from dealers who “ship at low prices”. It is expected to reduce the impact of channel hoarding, lower the monetization speed of channel inventory, and promote the digestion of existing inventory to normal terminals. Since the guidance/ factory price of Feitian Moutai has been around 1499 yuan, while the physical market guidance price has been pressed down to around 1500 yuan or even below (refer to the latest selling price of 1485 yuan), indicating that channel inventory pressure is still high—this policy directly improves the supply-demand gap by forcing channels to digest spot goods and抑制补货.

2. Demand-Side Cooperation
   : After channel supply tightens, it may push up scattered market price support in the short term and抑制 excessive discount selling, but this requires stable terminal demand. As of December 18, the stock price fell by 3.83% for the full year 2025, and the quarterly performance was sideways, indicating that the market is still cautious about consumer recovery [0]. If the policy can quickly improve the terminal supply-demand imbalance, it will help block the downward price trend.

• Channel Level
  : Moutai’s current stock price and 20/50/200-day moving averages remain sideways downward, and trading volume no longer increases, suggesting that both buyers and sellers are waiting for direction signals (see attached chart), and short-term sentiment is cautious [0]. Through the two levers of “revoking qualifications” and “reducing quotas”, the policy will force self-cleansing at the channel level, especially dealers with high inventory and low prices, who will face qualification risks, thus gaining motivation to reduce inventory. If implemented in place, short-term inventory should see a certain decline.

• Industry Level
  : The baijiu industry generally faces pressure from changes in consumption habits and channel structure adjustments. Feitian Moutai’s price continues to be lower than the guidance price, indicating that terminal sales have not fully recovered. For high-end baijiu as a whole, supply-side contraction is only a buffer channel; whether inventory can be completely released depends on whether terminal consumption follows up [1]. Competitors such as Wuliangye have cut prices, further exacerbating overall inventory and low-price competition. Therefore, Moutai’s “supply收敛” strategy also plays a demonstration role in the industry, which can alleviate some price war pressure but cannot completely eliminate industry inventory pressure caused by weak macro consumption.

• Fundamentals
  : Moutai still maintains ultra-high ROE (36.5%), net profit margin (51.5%) and other profitability, healthy cash flow, and low financial risk [0]. However, the current stock price has retreated by about 6% from the high at the beginning of the year. Compared with US stocks and its previous high elasticity valuation, the short-term volatility has increased.

• Valuation and Technology
  : TTM P/E is nearly 20x, P/B is about 7x, which is in the upper-middle range of history; technical indicators show a sideways trend, and MACD and KDJ have not seen a significant breakthrough (see technical analysis) [0]. If inventory and channel issues are effectively resolved in the first half of 2026, restoring supply-demand balance will provide a basis for valuation repair.

• Strategy Conclusion
  : If the shipment control and quota reduction policies can be truly implemented, they are expected to promote channel inventory digestion and block low-price shocks in the short term, which have a structural effect on improving supply and demand; if terminal demand does not recover simultaneously, it may lead to short-term revenue and shipment fluctuations. However, in the long run, as the industry enters an adjustment stage of “survival of the fittest”, Moutai, with stable brand power and high barriers, still has conditions to support long-term investment value under the combination of “inventory reduction + supply control” strategies, provided that attention is paid to the progress of policy implementation and the recovery speed of terminal retail.

• The chart “Kweichow Moutai 2025 Stock Price Trend Analysis” (X-axis is date, Y-axis is RMB price/trading volume) shows the annual price fluctuations, positions of MA20/MA50/MA200, as well as the guidance price and the dealer floor price of 1650 yuan; the trading volume chart reflects the volume points and quiet periods, helping to understand the market’s sensitivity to the policy. Chart link:

[0] Jinling API Data (including company overview, market price, technical analysis, stock price data, financial analysis and self-made charts)

[1] Yahoo Finance: Baijiu Feitian Moutai跌破1499元指导价 (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/白酒飛天茅台跌破1499元指導價-185300398.html)