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Comparison of IP Models Between Pop Mart and Disney and Analysis of Long-Term Investment Value

#ip模式比较 #泡泡玛特 #迪士尼 #长期投资价值 #平台化战略 #潮玩行业
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December 14, 2025
Comparison of IP Models Between Pop Mart and Disney and Analysis of Long-Term Investment Value

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1. Model Comparison: Content-Free IP vs. Story-Driven IP

Pop Mart currently follows a ‘content-free IP’ path, focusing on quickly selecting and repeatedly activating trendy toys with strong visual sensory stimulation (blind boxes, limited-edition series), relying on ‘quick emotions’ to create short-cycle popularity. It emphasizes

commercial operation and platform distribution of IP
rather than a content ecosystem driven by endogenous stories or cosmology. In contrast, Disney’s ‘story-driven IP’ builds a highly sticky content empire through narration, character shaping, and long-term fan cultivation. Its IP life cycle is highly tied to derivative sales, with stronger sustained memory and cross-generational inheritance capabilities.

Therefore, from the perspective of

content precipitation
, Pop Mart’s IP relies more on frequent updates and stimulating product designs rather than deep story logic; this also means the model is more susceptible to changes in consumer mindset and short-term trends, with relatively thin materials for long-term stickiness.

2. Evaluation of Sustainability of Long-Term Investment Value

Despite the disadvantage in ‘content depth’, Pop Mart has shown strong expansion and high efficiency in operating indicators through platformization and globalization strategies:

  • Current market capitalization is HK$255.8 billion, ROE is 54.52%, net profit margin is 30.32%, and operational efficiency (EV/OCF 72.44) remains high, indicating its return on equity and profitability are relatively stable [0];
  • Its stock price has risen by more than 800% cumulatively in recent years, and even after recent corrections, it still reflects market recognition of growth expectations; however, the short-term technical indicators (20/50/200-day moving averages) are currently below the price, suggesting it may still be in an adjustment range [0].

If the platform can continuously attract new IPs and achieve full-link synergy of logistics, channels, and members, its

marginal benefits and scale effects
can support valuation in the context of consumption upgrading and internationalization; however, this depends on continuously improving the IP ‘popularity conversion rate’ (i.e., the success rate of selecting hit products) and maintaining supply chain efficiency. The narrative depth relied on by Disney can provide more stable cash flow in mature markets, but its IP investment and output cycle is long, and innovation costs are high.

Therefore, Pop Mart has advantages in ‘capital efficiency’ and ‘short-term growth elasticity’, but is still weaker than Disney in ‘content moat’ and ‘long-term brand awareness’. Investors need to comprehensively consider whether its platformization can bridge this gap and whether it can convert ‘quick emotions’ into ‘sustained IP assets’.

3. Can Platformization Strategy Mitigate Structural Risks?

According to public research:

  • The company emphasizes
    ‘IP selection’
    rather than original creation in IP operations; ‘POP MART’ is more like an
    ‘IP commercialization infrastructure’ across the entire industry chain
    , including artist incubation, product design, retail channels (offline flagship stores, vending machines), and digital membership [1];
  • It will launch non-figure categories such as jewelry, building blocks, and magazines from 2024 to 2025, and set up regional headquarters and dedicated middle offices, aiming to make overseas business account for 50% of revenue, with the proportion gradually shifting toward globalization [1][2];
  • In addition, scenario-based assets such as city parks and landmark stores have begun to play a role in brand precipitation, trying to use ‘experience’ to enhance the sustainability of IP among different groups [3].

These actions indicate that the platformization strategy is trying to reduce dependence on individual artists through

process-based IP incubation + data-driven consumer reach
, while extending the IP life cycle through multiple categories and channels, which theoretically can weaken the structural risk of ‘insufficient IP stickiness’. However, the core challenges still lie in:

  1. The nature of ‘quick emotions’ is easily disturbed by trend fluctuations; once the platform’s selection mechanism fails (decline in hit density), stickiness and repurchase rate will be quickly hit;
  2. Although artist resources are gathered on the platform, without content precipitation and IP story extension, fan loyalty is still difficult to reach the ‘belief-level’ like Disney;
  3. To form a real platform effect in overseas markets, it is necessary to combine domestic trendy toy culture with local aesthetics and channels, which significantly increases operational complexity.

In summary, the platformization strategy provides an operable path to control structural risks, but its effect depends on whether

IP selection capabilities
,
supply chain efficiency
, and
user stickiness of experiential assets
can be deepened; if it cannot cultivate IP with higher loyalty while retaining ‘pleasure’, long-term sustainability still has uncertainties.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Pop Mart’s ‘content-free IP’ model can achieve high growth in consumption upgrading and overseas expansion in the short term through platformization and operational efficiency; however, compared with Disney’s ‘content + narrative’ model, its IP stickiness, brand precipitation, and depth of consumer mind still need to be further strengthened. The platformization strategy can alleviate the problem of high dependence on artists to a certain extent, but to truly transform into a sustainable long-term model, it is necessary to continuously improve the life cycle management of IP portfolios and cross-regional cultural adaptation capabilities. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of its platform middle office construction, the evolution of overseas revenue proportion, and the performance of new experience businesses (such as city parks) in enhancing brand stickiness, as key indicators to judge whether it can continuously deepen its platform moat.

References

[0] Jinling API Data (Company Overview, Price Data, Financial Analysis, 2025-12-18)
[1] Dongguan Securities Research Report “Pop Mart (9992.HK) Creating Trends, Delivering Beauty” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202505141672693656_1.pdf)
[2] Yahoo Finance “In-Depth Analysis of Investment Value of Pop Mart After Surge of Over 200%” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/深度分析泡泡瑪特爆升逾200-後投資價值-020500304.html)
[3] Ebang Power Network “Pop Mart Earnings Call: Targeting 20 Billion Yuan in 2025, Explosive Growth of Overseas Business” (https://www.ebrun.com/20250327/576084.shtml)

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