Holiday E-Commerce Returns Down 2.5% (Adobe): Market Impact & Analyst Insights

This analysis is based on the Forbes report [1] and supplementary market data. On December 17, 2025, Adobe Analytics reported a 2.5% year-over-year (YoY) decline in e-commerce returns during the first six weeks of the holiday shopping season (November 1–December 12) [2]. The report noted this positive momentum slowed significantly post-Cyber Week, with returns down just 0.1% [3]. Concurrently, online spending reached $187.3 billion, a 6.1% YoY increase [4], indicating robust consumer activity alongside improved return efficiency.

Market reactions were mixed:

• Adobe (ADBE)
  : Stock rose 1.95% in after-hours trading, likely driven by enhanced credibility as a leading e-commerce analytics provider [0].
• Amazon (AMZN)
  : Stock declined 0.58% in after-hours trading due to a union walkout at a Riverside, CA delivery facility and AI team reorganization, unrelated to the returns report [5].
• Shopify (SHOP)
  : Stock dropped 0.86% after-hours following news that its VP of core product left to join OpenAI [6].

1. Adobe’s Analytics Leadership Strengthened
   : The report covers over 1 trillion U.S. retail site visits and 100 million SKUs, reinforcing Adobe’s position as a trusted source of e-commerce data. This aligns with analyst sentiment, where 67.2% rate ADBE a “Buy” with 19.8% upside potential [0].
2. Retail Margin Dynamics
   : Lower returns reduce costly shipping, restocking, and merchandise devaluation for retailers, but this benefit may be mitigated by the projected 25–35% post-Christmas return surge [4].
3. Peer Risks Are Unrelated
   : AMZN’s labor disruptions and SHOP’s executive turnover are short-term headwinds independent of industry return trends, highlighting the need to distinguish sector-wide data from company-specific events.

• Post-Christmas Return Surge
  : Projected 25–35% higher returns could lead to elevated costs and inventory challenges for retailers [4].
• Amazon Labor Disruptions
  : The Riverside union walkout may impact delivery operations during the critical holiday period [5].
• Shopify Product Roadmap Uncertainty
  : Executive turnover could delay AI and product development initiatives [6].
• Economic Uncertainty
  : Broader inflation and labor market concerns may affect consumer behavior in subsequent months [8].

• Adobe Analytics Growth
  : Retailers seeking to reduce returns may increase demand for Adobe’s data services [0].
• AI-Driven Retail Improvements
  : Companies investing in AI recommendations, better product descriptions, or sizing tools could sustain lower return rates [7].

Adobe Analytics reported a 2.5% YoY decline in holiday e-commerce returns (Nov 1-Dec 12, 2025), with ADBE stock rising due to enhanced analytics credibility. Online spending increased 6.1% YoY, but a significant post-Christmas return surge is projected. Amazon and Shopify saw minor after-hours declines due to unrelated company-specific issues. Key information gaps include the root causes of declining returns and sector-specific return variations. Decision-makers should monitor post-Christmas return volumes and retailer cost structures closely to assess long-term impacts.