Analysis of Long-Term Investment Value Differences Between Pop Mart and Disney's IP Models

Based on the information I collected, I will conduct an in-depth analysis of the long-term investment value differences between Pop Mart’s ‘content-free IP platformization’ model and Disney’s ‘content-driven IP’ model.

Disney adopts a full industry chain model of ‘content-platform-experience-consumption’ [2]:

• First create content
  : Create IP through film and television content, investing 5-10 years and hundreds of millions of dollars in movie production
• Then spread IP
  : Spread through streaming platforms (Disney+, Hulu) and traditional TV networks
• Then experience consumption
  : Provide immersive experiences through theme parks, resorts and cruise ships
• Finally monetize
  : Achieve diversified monetization through consumer goods and IP licensing

: The IP life cycle is extremely long; Mickey Mouse has been popular for over 90 years, Zootopia for 10 years, and Pirates of the Caribbean for 20 years [2].

Pop Mart takes a completely different path:

• Visual-driven
  : Rely on trendy visual design rather than deep story content [1]
• Quick iteration
  : Design costs are far lower than movie production, allowing ‘small steps, quick iterations’ [1]
• Probability mechanism
  : Stimulate dopamine effect and addictiveness through blind box mechanism [3]
• Social currency
  : Easy to become emojis and avatars, achieving viral spread in user-generated UGC [1]

: Establishes deep emotional connections; users pay for character fates and storylines, forming strong emotional bonds [1].

: Relatively shallow emotional connection; fan loyalty is more based on ‘trends’ and ‘design’ rather than deep emotional ties, and is more likely to be replaced by the next cooler, newer trend IP [1].

:

• Long IP life cycle with cross-cycle ability
• Maintain popularity through continuous content updates (5-10 year cycle for new movies) [2]

:

• “Heavily relies on continuous operations and freshness to ‘survive’” [1]
• “Once operations weaken or designs become outdated, there is a risk of becoming ‘fast fashion’ and being quickly forgotten” [1]
• Netizens’ analysis points out that Labubu’s popularity was highly accidental and can only be summarized after the fact but not predicted [3]

Pop Mart’s blind box mechanism faces major questions:

• “Widely considered to have certain gambling properties, dopamine stimulation effect and addictiveness” [3]
• “Precisely manipulate consumer behavior through psychology and behavioral economics principles” [3]
• Some criticize it for “harvesting emotional taxes from young people” and products lack practical functional value [3]

:

• Channel advantage
  : Operates 521 own retail stores and 2,472 robot stores in over 30 countries [6]
• Scaling ability
  : 2024 revenue of 13.04 billion yuan, overseas revenue accounts for nearly 40% [5]
• Industrialization capability
  : Achieves marginal cost reduction in horizontal expansion from the income statement [3]

:

• Contradiction in control over artists
  : Need to continuously produce hit IPs while maintaining control over artists, which has fundamental contradictions
• IP concentration risk
  : Over-reliance on individual IPs (e.g., Labubu) brings systemic risks
• Lack of content capability
  : Lack of deep story content support, making it difficult to form true cultural symbols

Disney’s moat is built on:

• Century-old cultural accumulation
  : Has complete worldview and storylines
• Multiple monetization channels
  : Multi-dimensional monetization through movies, streaming media, parks, merchandise, licensing, etc.
• Continuous innovation capability
  : Continuously produce high-quality content through internal studios (Pixar, Marvel, etc.)

Outstanding performance in H1 2025 [4]:

• Revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, up 204.4% YoY
• Adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% YoY
• Gross margin of 66.8%, net margin of 26.1%

But the stock price trend is worrying:

• Recent stock price plummeted, dropping over 43% from the high of 339.8 yuan [5]
• Reflects market concerns about its long-term sustainability

• Market capitalization of 199.58 billion USD [0]
• P/E ratio of 16.09x, relatively reasonable
• Net margin of 13.14%, operating margin of 14.65% [0]
• Analyst consensus target price of 139 USD, with 25.6% upside potential [0]

:

• High capital efficiency; IP creation efficiency is 10 times faster than Disney [2]
• Global IP collectibles market size exceeds 100 billion USD with a CAGR of 8% [6]
• Repurchase rate of 74% in the U.S. market, even exceeding Disney [6]
• Strong overseas expansion momentum; overseas sales grew 234% YoY in 2025 [6]

:

• Questionable business model sustainability
  : Whether the model relying on ‘fast emotions’ and ‘sensory stimulation’ can be sustained long-term
• Regulatory risk
  : Blind box mechanism may face stricter regulation
• Cultural export capability
  : Lack of deep cultural content, making it difficult to form true global cultural influence

Pop Mart’s ‘content-free IP platformization’ model does have fundamental flaws compared to Disney’s ‘content-driven IP’ model:

1. Shallow emotional connection
   : Lack of deep cultural and emotional connotations, making it difficult to form cross-cycle brand loyalty

2. Uncertain IP life cycle
   : Over-reliance on trend trends, easily replaced by new IPs, sustainability is questionable

3. Business ethics risk
   : Gambling-like sales mechanism faces regulatory and social questions

4. Artist control contradiction
   : Need to rely on artists’ creativity while maintaining platform control, there is an inherent conflict

Although Pop Mart has performed well in the short term, from a long-term investment perspective, Disney’s ‘content-driven IP’ model has a more solid and sustainable moat. Pop Mart needs to transform to ‘content-driven’, such as the already started film studio and Labubu filmization strategy, to truly build long-term value [5].

Investors should pay attention to whether Pop Mart can successfully complete the leap from ‘design-driven’ to ‘content-driven’, which is the key to its ability to achieve long-term value [1].

[0] Jinling API Data - Disney Company Overview and Real-Time Stock Price Information
[1] 36Kr - “Revealing Two IP Models: Image IP Pop Mart VS Story IP Disney Marvel”
[2] Huxiu - “Disney’s Business Model Is More Stable Than Pop Mart’s”
[3] Zhejiang University School of Management - “Pop Mart Financial Report Perspective: Understand the ‘Emotional Economy’ Code Behind Trendy Toys in One Article”
[4] NetEase - “Outstanding Financial Report But Plummeting Stock Price: What’s Wrong With Pop Mart?”
[5] Investing.com - “Luxury ‘Godfather’ Wu Yue’s New Task: Teach Pop Mart’s Brand and Overseas Lessons Well”
[6] Yahoo Finance - “Kidult Economy Rises! Morgan Stanley: Global IP Collectibles Output Value Exceeds 100 Billion USD”