Analysis of the Effectiveness of Moutai's Supply-Side Reform Measures

In December 2025, Kweichow Moutai issued an important notice to dealers, implementing a series of supply-side reform measures, including

and . The specific cuts are: Moutai 15-Year quota cut by 30%, 1L Feitian Moutai quota cut by 30%, Zodiac Moutai quota cut by 50%, and Color Glaze Treasure Moutai quota cut by 100% [1].

The direct reason for this policy is that

, which is the first time this has happened in recent years [2]. As of December 12, the market price of bulk single bottles and original case single bottles of Feitian Moutai fluctuated between 1485 yuan and 1500 yuan, showing unprecedented price pressure [1].

After the policy was implemented, Moutai prices showed

. It only took 24 hours to rise from 1490 yuan to 1580 yuan, showing the immediate effect of the supply suspension and price control measures [3]. As of the latest data, the price of Feitian Moutai has recovered to around 1510 yuan per bottle [1], proving the policy’s effectiveness in stabilizing the price system in the short term.

The core purpose of Moutai’s supply suspension this time is to “

” [1]. This measure directly addresses the pain point of dealers’ tight funds at the end of the year, reducing channel burden by suspending supply and curbing panic selling from the source [3].

By significantly cutting non-standard product quotas, Moutai will

, anchoring the price ranges of 1500+ yuan, 600+ yuan, and 2000+ yuan respectively [3]. This structural adjustment strips away weak profit links and promotes the product structure to adjust in a healthier direction.

Setting

, violators will have their dealer qualifications revoked. This rigid constraint provides a strong guarantee for the price system [1]. Compared with the previous dealer profit point of 2000 yuan per bottle, this bottom line not only considers the current market environment but also maintains the basic stability of the price system [2].

The liquor industry faces a serious

problem. In the first half of 2025, the industry’s average inventory turnover days reached 900 days, an increase of 10% year-on-year, and inventory volume increased by 25% year-on-year [4]. Data shows that at the end of the third quarter of 2025, the total inventory of 20 listed wine companies was 176.686 billion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year, and an increase of 63% over four years compared with 2021 [1].

Current liquor consumption faces the "

: rational consumption attitude, rational consumption choice, and rational consumption price [2]. The supply-demand imbalance of high-end liquor is not only reflected in the quantity of supply and demand but also in the structure of supply and demand. Young groups’ consumption preferences have shifted to low-alcohol fruit wine, non-alcoholic beer, etc., and liquor accounts for only 31.8% of young consumers’ alcohol consumption [1].

E-commerce platforms use

to push prices below wholesale prices, shaking the traditional “price benchmark”, and pricing power has actually been partially transferred to the platforms [4]. Moutai needs to deal with this new channel competition pattern, and simple supply-side regulation may not be sufficient to fully cope with price pressure.

Moutai’s supply-side reform measures have shown

in the short term, with prices rising from 1490 yuan to above 1510 yuan, proving the policy’s immediate effectiveness [1][3].

In the medium term, Moutai still faces structural challenges such as high industry inventory and weak consumer demand. During the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the overall demand of the liquor industry decreased by 20% to 30% year-on-year, inventory increased by 10% to 20%, and wholesale prices declined across the board [1].

Moutai has begun to implement multi-dimensional long-term strategies:

• Direct sales channel expansion
  : E-commerce revenue accounted for 22% of the total, shortening the supply chain to reduce channel inventory pressure [3]
• Precision delivery optimization
  : After gradually reducing market delivery volume since June, sales have doubled month-on-month since October, and dealers’ inventory-sales ratio has dropped to a healthy range [3]
• Product structure adjustment
  : Focus on high-turnover core products and strip away weak profit links [3]

Moutai’s supply-side reform measures

, but the long-term effect still needs to observe the recovery of consumer demand, the digestion of channel inventory to a healthy level, and the progress of industry structural adjustment. It is expected that leading famous wines will initially stabilize in 2026, but the industry’s price recovery depends on multiple factors such as economic recovery driving the repair of high-end consumption scenarios, active volume control and price stabilization by brands, and the standardization of the price system of emerging channels [4].

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[0] Jinling API Data
[1] Sohu Finance - “Price Plummets, Moutai Panics? Online ‘Internal Notice’: Cancel Dealer Qualification if Shipped Below 1650”
[2] Oriental Fortune - “Feitian Moutai Market Price Briefly Falls Below 1499 Yuan, Some Dealers: Notice Says Supply Suspended Until Next Year”
[3] China Interview Network - “From 1490 Yuan to 1580 Yuan in Only 24 Hours! Has Moutai’s Supply Suspension and Price Control Worked?”
[4] Southern+ - ““Double Twelve” Famous Wine Prices Fall Again, When Will the Turning Point Come?”
[5] 36Kr - “Falls Below 1499 Yuan, Even Moutai Can’t Be Sold”
[6] Wenxue City - “Feitian Moutai Wholesale Price ‘Returns’ to Guidance Price: Is White Wine Entering a New Round of ‘Bubble Squeezing’?”