Investment Value Analysis of Coursera's Merger Transaction: Profit and Risk Assessment

On December 17, 2025, Coursera (COUR) announced the acquisition of Udemy (UDMY) via an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $2.5 billion [1][2]. Under the transaction terms, Udemy shareholders will receive 0.8 shares of Coursera stock per share, equivalent to an acquisition price of $6.35 per share, representing an 18.3% premium over Udemy’s 30-day average closing price [3][4].

• Coursera’s stock price fell 2.20% to $7.77 [0]
• Udemy’s stock price surged 13.13% to $6.08 [0]
• After the transaction is completed, Coursera shareholders will own approximately 59% of the merged company, while Udemy shareholders will hold 41% [5]

• The merged company is expected to achieve annual revenue of $1.5 billion [6]
• Form a complete AI-driven learning ecosystem covering the entire chain from higher education to corporate training
• Udemy’s strength in the corporate market (accounting for 62.9% of revenue) complements Coursera’s presence in the consumer market (accounting for 57.3% of revenue) [0]

• Expected to achieve $115 million in cost synergies within two years [6]
• Technology platform integration, content procurement optimization, elimination of management overlaps

• Will control a significant share of the U.S. online education market after the merger
• Gain a leading position in the strategically emerging field of AI skills training [1]
• Have a larger instructor network and course library

• Both companies are actively transitioning to AI-driven corporate skills training [1]
• The merger will accelerate the development and application of AI personalized learning algorithms
• Seize strategic opportunities against the backdrop of high government and corporate attention to AI talent cultivation

• This is one of the largest integration transactions in the online education sector in recent years [1]
• Regulators may be concerned about the merged entity’s market pricing power and competition restrictions
• Control of AI training data and algorithms will be a key review focus [1]

• The transaction involves sensitive areas such as AI, data privacy, and labor market development [1]
• May require detailed commitments and concessions from the parties
• The regulatory environment for tech integration in 2025-26 is more cautious [1]

• Coursera adopts a university partnership model, while Udemy uses an open market model
• Differences exist in instructor network management and course quality control systems
• The complexity and cost of technology platform integration may exceed expectations

• Customer churn risk, especially corporate customers’ concerns about contract terms
• Key talent loss, especially in the AI technology team
• Difficulty in unifying brand positioning and product strategy

• Coursera’s current stock price is $7.77, down 43% from its 52-week high
• The transaction increases Coursera’s debt burden and financial leverage
• Uncertainty in synergy realization affects investment return expectations

• May incur significant one-time fees during the integration period
• Profit margins may come under further pressure before synergies are realized
• Continuous investment is needed to maintain technological competitiveness

• Market capitalization of $1.26 billion, price-to-sales ratio of 1.70x [0]
• Gross margin and operating margin remain negative, indicating the business model is still in the investment phase [0]
• Median analyst target price is $12.50, representing a 60.9% upside from the current price [0]

• Intrinsic value under the base scenario is -$6.91, indicating current valuation is high [0]
• Value under the conservative scenario is -$4.63, and under the optimistic scenario is -$11.88 [0]
• Negative intrinsic value reflects challenges in the company’s current profitability and cash flow [0]

• Currently in a sideways consolidation state with no clear trend direction [0]
• Support level at $7.61, resistance level at $8.08 [0]
• RSI and KDJ indicators show oversold opportunities, but caution is needed [0]

• The merger transaction’s profit prospects are attractive, but risks cannot be ignored
• Regulatory approval uncertainty is the biggest current risk factor
• The success rate of integration execution will determine long-term investment value

• Maintain a neutral stance and wait for regulatory approval results
• Monitor transaction progress and regulators’ attitudes
• Pay attention to the stock price performance near the $7.61 support level

• If the transaction is successfully approved, focus on the realization of integration synergies
• Monitor corporate customer renewal rates and ARPU changes
• Evaluate the application effect of AI technology in products

• Reassess based on the merged entity’s market competitive position and profitability
• Focus on the AI transformation trend in the online education market
• Evaluate the merged company’s leadership position in the global edtech sector

1. Regulatory Approval Progress:
   FTC and Department of Justice review attitudes and timelines
2. Synergy Realization:
   Progress in cost synergy achievement and early indicators of revenue synergy
3. Financial Performance:
   Improvement trends in revenue growth rate, gross margin, and free cash flow
4. Market Position:
   Corporate customer growth, user engagement, and competitor reactions

Coursera’s acquisition of Udemy is a high-potential but high-risk strategic move. In the long term, if successfully integrated, it will create a strong platform in the AI-driven education field with significant investment value. However, it faces multiple short-term challenges such as regulatory approval, integration execution, and financial pressure.

Bank of America’s neutral rating reflects the balance between these benefits and risks. Investors should carefully assess their risk tolerance and investment horizon, closely track transaction progress and integration effects, and re-evaluate investment value at key time points.

[0] Jinling API Data - Real-time stock prices, company profiles, financial analysis, DCF valuation, technical analysis data
[1] Invezz - “Coursera-Udemy deal: why regulatory approval may not be a breeze” (https://invezz.com/news/2025/12/17/coursera-udemy-deal-why-regulatory-approval-may-not-be-a-breeze/)
[2] TechCrunch - “Coursera and Udemy enter a merger agreement valued at around $2.5B” (https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/17/coursera-and-udemy-enter-a-merger-agreement-valued-at-around-2-5b/)
[3] LiveMint - “Coursera to acquire Udemy in $2.5 billion all-stock deal” (https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/coursera-to-acquire-udemy-in-2-5-billion-all-stock-deal-11765991081099.html)
[4] Slashdot - “Coursera Acquires Udemy For $930 Million” (https://news.slashdot.org/story/25/12/17/1650219/coursera-acquires-udemy-for-930-million)
[5] InsideArbitrage - “Coursera to Acquire Udemy in a $678.16 Million All-Stock Deal” (https://www.insidearbitrage.com/2025/12/coursera-to-acquire-udemy-in-a-678-16-million-all-stock-deal/)
[6] MarketChameleon - “Udemy–Coursera Merger Aims to Build AI-Powered Education Platform With $1.5 Billion in Revenue and $115 Million Cost Synergies” (https://marketchameleon.com/Blog/post/2025/12/17/udemy-coursera-merger-ai-education-synergies)