In-depth Impact Analysis of Moutai's Channel Contraction Strategy

Moutai’s “package” channel control strategy launched this time includes measures in two dimensions:

: Suspend the distribution of all Moutai products to dealers within December 2025 until January 1, 2026, and resume at an appropriate time [1].

: Significantly reduce non-standard product quotas in 2026 (Moutai 15-Year reduced by 30%, 1L Feitian reduced by 30%, Zodiac Moutai reduced by 50%, Glazed Treasure Moutai reduced by 100%), and focus incremental volume on three core products: Moutai 1935, Feitian Moutai, and Premium Moutai [2].

From market reactions, this strategy has an immediate effect. On December 12, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai once fell to 1485 yuan/bottle, breaking below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan for the first time, but quickly rebounded to 1560 yuan/bottle after the news of shipment control emerged, returning above the guidance price [1][2]. This shows that Moutai still has strong price regulation capabilities.

The new policy sends a signal of “comprehensive marketization”, planning to pilot some non-standard products, selling at whatever the market price is [2]. Taking Premium Moutai as an example, its ex-factory price is 3299 yuan, and the current wholesale price is only 2000-2100 yuan. Next year, the selling price may be substantially close to the market price through subsidies and other methods [2]. This approach helps:

• Reduce dealer pressure
  : Avoid panic selling during the year-end capital tight period [1]
• Optimize channel structure
  : May change from distribution system to application system, allowing dealers to apply for agency qualifications independently [2]
• Enhance channel resilience
  : Focus on precise delivery based on terminal sales situation [1]

According to the latest financial data, Moutai has an excellent financial foundation [0]:

• Net profit margin as high as 51.51%
  , operating profit margin 71.37%
• ROE reaches 36.48%
  , return on net assets is extremely excellent
• Current ratio 6.62
  , financial status is stable
• Current market value 1.80 trillion yuan
  , still one of the most valuable alcohol companies in the world

This strong financial foundation provides sufficient buffer space for Moutai’s channel reform.

By reducing non-standard product quotas and focusing on core products, Moutai is implementing a more precise product strategy:

• Price band anchoring
  : Moutai 1935 anchors the 600+ yuan price band, Feitian Moutai 1500 yuan, Premium Moutai 2000+ yuan price band [2]
• Profit structure optimization
  : Reduce non-standard products with shrinking channel profits, optimize supply structure from the source
• Brand value protection
  : Avoid negative impact of price fluctuations of non-standard products on the main brand

:

• Obvious policy support effect, three departments jointly issued documents to boost consumption [2]
• Local governments are also making efforts, Guizhou launched measures to promote liquor sales [2]
• Channel resilience enhanced, precise delivery mechanism becomes more mature

:

• Short-term revenue may be affected, sales volume declines during the shipment suspension period
• Adjustment of dealer network may bring a pain period
• Market-oriented reform needs to balance the interests of all parties

The capital market has responded positively to Moutai’s volume control measures [2]:

• Stock price performance
  : The stock price continued its recent rebound trend, rising more than 1% intraday
• Institutional ratings
  : Citi maintained a “Buy” rating, believing it is conducive to stabilizing wholesale prices and stock prices
• Industry expectations
  : Soochow Securities, Guosheng Securities and others are generally optimistic about the subsequent trend of the industry

Moutai’s active contraction strategy this time reflects the company’s strategic determination and channel control power as an industry leader:

: ★★★★★

• Immediate price regulation effect
• Correct direction of channel relationship reconstruction
• Clear market-oriented reform ideas

: ★★★★☆

• Extremely stable financial foundation
• Wise product structure optimization strategy
• Short-term pain for long-term healthy development

: ★★★★★

• Proactively respond to market changes
• Appropriate timing of policy coordination
• Lay the foundation for industry recovery

Under the dual benefits of increased consumption stimulus policies and active regulation by leading enterprises, Moutai’s channel contraction strategy is expected to help the company achieve higher-quality development in 2026 and inject confidence into the recovery of the entire liquor industry.

---

[0] Jinling API Data - Guizhou Moutai Financial Indicators and Market Data
[1] Sina Finance - “Dealers will be disqualified if they ship below 1650 yuan? Moutai: False” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-16/doc-inhaxzmm1583266.shtml)
[2] TMTPost - “Moutai’s year-end shipment control new policy stimulates Feitian price recovery, will liquor stock rebound release recovery signal?” (https://www.tmtpost.com/7809324.html)