Analysis of the Impact of China's Commercial Aerospace Policy Evolution on Investment Targets and Industrial Chain

Based on the latest information I have obtained, I will conduct an in-depth analysis of the structural impact of China’s commercial aerospace policy evolution on relevant investment targets and the industrial chain.

During this period, policies were mainly cautious trials, laying the basic institutional framework for subsequent development with relatively limited impact.

2014 is regarded as a policy inflection point, when the government began to substantially open up the aerospace sector to private capital. 2015, known as the ‘ice-breaking year’, marked the official launch of China’s commercial aerospace industry.

Policy focus shifted to standardized development and ecological construction, providing institutional guarantees for the healthy development of the industry.

In 2023, commercial aerospace was officially included in the national strategic emerging industries, achieving a qualitative leap from “industry supplement” to “new growth engine” [1].

• China Satellite (600118)
  : Transforming from a single satellite manufacturer to an integrated service provider
• Aerospace Power (600343)
  : Engine business benefits from surging launch demand
• China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation
  : Overall valuation system shifts from military to military-civilian integration

• Chang Guang Satellite
  : Has one of the world’s largest optical remote sensing constellations, with over 130 multispectral and infrared satellites deployed [1]
• LandSpace
  : Breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology
• GalaxySpace
  : Main force in low-orbit satellite internet construction
• Microspace
  : Focused on small satellite manufacturing

Policy support has enabled these private enterprises to receive billions of dollars in funding, accelerating the process of catching up with Musk’s SpaceX technologically [2].

Government demand → State-owned enterprises → One-way supply

Government + Market demand → SOEs + Private enterprises + Foreign capital → Competitive cooperation ecosystem

• Chip sector
  : Shifting from import dependence to independent R&D
• New materials
  : Localization rate of high-temperature alloys and composite materials increases
• Control systems
  : Independent and controllable requirements drive technological breakthroughs

• Traditional Long March series still dominate
• Private rocket enterprises are catching up rapidly
• Reusable technology becomes a competitive focus

In 2025, at least six domestic reusable rockets are scheduled for their first flight in China [2].

• Satellite internet
  : Shifting from trial to commercial use
• Earth observation
  : High-resolution, real-time services
• Space computing
  : Edge computing capabilities on satellites
• On-orbit services
  : Maintenance, refueling, upgrading

Global commercial aerospace investment reached $58 billion in 2024, three times that of 2019, with about 80% invested in areas closely related to airspace access, including low-orbit satellite constellations and reusable launch vehicles [1].

• Improvement of launch service capabilities
• Large-scale satellite manufacturing
• Ground equipment supporting

• Commercialization of satellite internet
• Earth observation services
• On-orbit service technology

• Space tourism
• Deep space exploration
• Space resource development

• Early stage: Policy subsidies dominate, high risk
• Current stage: Diversified market demand, more stable returns
• Future: Mature technology commercialization, prominent investment value

Many local governments are actively laying out commercial aerospace industry, forming a differentiated development pattern:

• Wenchang, Hainan
  : Relying on launch base advantages
• Beijing
  : Technology R&D and headquarters economy
• Xi’an
  : Traditional aerospace foundation advantages
• Shanghai
  : Financial and manufacturing advantages

Developing from single enterprises to industrial clusters, forming a complete industrial ecosystem including R&D, manufacturing, launch, operation, and application.

The rapid development of China’s commercial aerospace enterprises is helping China quickly narrow the space gap with the United States [1]. The dual-use nature of these commercial companies has become a core competitiveness.

Compared with SpaceX’s “big rocket + Starlink” model, Chinese enterprises adopt more “small steps, fast runs, multi-line parallel” strategies to seek breakthroughs in segmented fields.

In 2025, the China National Space Administration will start formulating the 2026-2035 commercial aerospace development plan, which is expected to further simplify regulatory processes and provide clearer policy guidance for industrial development [1].

• Focus on leading enterprises with core technical advantages
• Layout comprehensive platforms covering the entire industrial chain
• Focus on enterprises with in-depth military-civilian integration development

• Specialized companies focusing on segmented fields
• New technology application enterprises with commercial prospects
• Export-oriented enterprises with international competitiveness

• Closely monitor policy changes and regulatory requirements
• Evaluate technology maturity and commercial prospects
• Pay attention to the impact of geopolitics on international cooperation

From the tentative opening in 2007 to being officially included in national strategic emerging industries in 2023, policy evolution has brought profound structural changes to China’s commercial aerospace industry. These changes are not only reflected in the diversification of investment targets and the revaluation, but also in the fundamental transformation of the entire industrial chain from the traditional government-led model to a market-oriented and ecological direction.

For investors, this policy evolution has created full-chain investment opportunities from infrastructure construction to application services, but it also requires more professional investment judgment and risk identification capabilities. In the next 5-10 years, with the maturity of technology and innovation of business models, China’s commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a real golden development period.

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[1] War on the Rocks - “Eastern Stars Rising: The Rise of China’s Commercial Space Industry” (https://warontherocks.com/2025/07/eastern-stars-rising-the-rise-of-chinas-commercial-space-industry/)

[2] Wall Street Journal - “China’s Private Aerospace Companies Are Catching Up to Musk’s SpaceX” (https://cn.wsj.com/articles/中国民营航天公司正在追赶马斯克的spacex-17055c3c)

[3] Eurasia Review - “New Space Economy: Balancing Security And Development” (https://www.eurasiareview.com/02122025-new-space-economy-balancing-security-and-development-analysis/)

[4] Jinling AI Data - Financial Analysis API Data