Yu Hao's Controlling Stake Catalyzes Strong Market Performance of Jiamei Packaging

At 17:15:44 on December 17, 2025 (UTC+8), the event log of tushare_strong_pool recorded that Jiamei Packaging (002969) sealed the daily limit after resuming trading, hit a 52-week high at 5.02 yuan, and entered the strong stock pool. The trading volume was only 17% of the daily average, indicating strong control by the sealing funds but still limited short-term liquidity [0].

The evening announcement on December 16 showed that Suzhou Zhuyue Hongzhi Technology Development Partnership, founded by Yu Hao (founder of Dreame Technology), plans to invest a total of 2.282 billion yuan at 4.45 yuan per share through agreement transfer (279 million shares) and tender offer (233 million shares), which can account for up to 54.90% of Jiamei Packaging’s equity [1][2]. The original major shareholders, China Packaging Hong Kong, Fuxin Investment, and Zhongkai Investment, have promised to accept the tender offer in advance and signed an agreement with the new actual controller that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company from 2026 to 2030 will not be less than 120 million yuan. If it fails to meet the standard, cash compensation will be provided, which is expected to provide a bottom line for the current performance expectations [1][2]. The market responded with a one-word limit-up, but it is still necessary to closely monitor the progress of equity transfer and the final shareholding ratio [2].

Recently, the stock price has continuously broken through short-term and medium-term moving averages, with two limit-ups on December 9 and 17. The range increase in the past month is +28.72%, the 20-day moving average is 4.15 yuan, and the current price is 21% higher than that [0]. In terms of trading volume, it was only 4.98 million shares on December 17, far lower than the daily average of 29.19 million shares, reflecting that the sealing funds are clustered and the market has not yet fully released volume [0]. Technical indicators suggest short-term caution: MACD continues the bullish structure, but KDJ (K91.6/D87.1/J100.6) and RSI have entered the overbought zone. A Beta of only 0.29 indicates low linkage with the market. If it cannot continue to break through 5.16 yuan with volume, it may retrace to the 4.49 yuan support or the 20-day moving average in the short term [0].

In the first three quarters of 2025, operating revenue was 2.039 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company was only 39.16 million yuan, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 47.25%. The current PE of 31.93 times, P/B of 1.97 times, and ROE of 6.12% are supported only by thin profits, and the valuation is high [0]. However, the packaging industry is still driven by structural growth: the global metal packaging market is expected to reach 194.6 billion US dollars by 2032 from 146.7 billion US dollars in 2023, with a CAGR of 3.26%. The beverage can market will grow at a CAGR of 4.7%, driven by sustainability and RTD consumption [3][4]. China’s beer canization rate and environmental protection policies have boosted the demand for two-piece cans, increasing from 51.24 billion cans in 2019 to 61.74 billion cans in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.8% [6]. Global leaders continue to expand production (such as Ball’s acquisition of Benepack) to strengthen the industry’s capitalization trend [5].

• Industrial capital endorsement enhances imagination space: Yu Hao entered with a 24.3% premium at 4.45 yuan per share, and set up a 5-year net profit commitment and cash compensation mechanism to provide performance guarantee. However, the current stock price is still in the limit-up range higher than the acquisition price. If synergy does not appear, the risk of valuation regression is significant [1][2][0].
• Cross-border synergy logic still needs to be verified: although Dreame Technology has layouts in home appliances, smart appliances, and new energy, its direct synergy with metal packaging is limited, and the strategic direction is not yet fully clear. It is necessary to observe whether substantive cooperation will be extended in overseas channels, home appliance metal parts, or new energy vehicle packaging in the future [7].
• Industry fundamentals and environmental protection trends provide long-term support: the metal and beverage can sector maintains stable demand in sustainability, lightweighting, and global consumption upgrading. At the same time, the expansion of global giants highlights the possibility of valuation restructuring. If Jiamei can expand production capacity and processes with new resources, there is room for value revaluation [3][4][5][6].
• Technical side: high overbought and low volatility are intertwined: short-term trading slows down but the upward momentum is strong. If it cannot break through with a large volume increase, the probability of a short-term retracement to 4.49 or breaking below the 4.15 moving average will increase [0].

• Short-term risks: Multiple indicators such as KDJ and RSI have entered the overbought zone. A 28.72% increase in one month combined with shrinking trading volume. If there is no volume breakthrough or high-volume turnover on December 18-19, short-term profit-taking may be released quickly, with support at 4.49 yuan; if it breaks below, it may retrace to 4.15 yuan or even lower [0].
• Medium-term risks: The net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 was only 39.16 million yuan, which is still a large gap from the 120 million yuan commitment. If the recovery is weak, performance may be filled by compensation, and insufficient growth will lead to valuation reset [0][1][2].
• Structural risks: Dreame Technology’s multiple cross-border moves (home appliances, sweeping robots, car manufacturing) increase the difficulty of strategic focus. If the new actual controller fails to clarify the integration path, the acquisition may become capital speculation. The final proportion of the tender offer is still uncertain, and the transition period management and operation rhythm need to be observed [7][1][2].
• Opportunity window: If the new actual controller can synergize with the home appliance, automobile and other industrial chains, inject resources into overseas market development and deep processing of packaging, and coupled with sustainable demand brought by industry environmental protection and beverage category expansion, Jiamei Packaging is expected to obtain valuation repair momentum from the combination of “performance bottom line + industry prosperity” [1][2][3][4][6].
• Event tracking: Closely monitor the progress of equity transfer and tender offer (expected to be completed in Q1 2026), the 2025 annual report and the fulfillment of performance commitments, the follow-up strategies of Yu Hao/Dreame Technology (synergy path between home appliances, new energy and packaging), and changes in environmental protection and packaging policies [2][1][7][6].